انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 Investigating Factors Affecting Import Demand of Meat and Livestock Inputs in Iran بررسی عامل‌های مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات انواع گوشت و نهاده‌های دامی در ایران 1 28 37421 10.22034/iaes.2019.114832.1727 FA پریسا علیزاده دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد حسین محمدی عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد ناصر شاهنوشی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی سید حسین سقائیان نژاد دانشگاه کنتاکی علیرضا پویا استاد گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد Journal Article 2019 09 25 Introduction Despite the relative advantage of producing some agricultural products, Iran is one of the largest importers of agricultural sector, so the total agricultural imports in 2016 were about 8.78 billion dollars. One of the most imported products is red meat and livestock inputs. Animal corn is the first imported product of Iran and is one of the most important livestock feed. Due to the low level of domestic production of animal corn, large quantity of it is imported every year. Soybean meal is also the fourth-largest imported agricultural product and the seventh product of the country's import. High dependence on the import of red meat and livestock inputs and the lack of domestic production of these products in Iran have caused any change in import policy of these products will affect the welfare of many producers and consumers. Due to the close relationship between import of these products and food security and the welfare of the society, recognizing the factors affecting the import demand of these products is important to proper policy making in livestock sector. In fact, the import demand function in developing economies should be investigated because it has significant effects on the international trade policy in general and the exchange rate policy in particular. Materials and Methods In this study, contrary to previous studies which considered only a few factors, it was investigated the effects of tariff rate, GDP, real effective exchange rate, domestic production and relative price of imported products on the import demand of veal, lamb, chicken, animal corn and soybean meal. Due to correlation between the disturbance term in different equations, it was used the simultaneous equations method and also it was used imperfect substitution approach to derive import demand function. For this purpose, monthly data from April 2010 to March of 2016 has been used. To determine the appropriate estimator, Hegy test and diagonal disturbance covariance matrix test was used. In order to investigate co-integration, the Johansen-Juselius test was used for each import demand equation. Additionally, it was used Engle ARCH LM heteroscedasticity test and Harvey LM autocorrelation test for all equations. Results showed that there is no heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the system. Results and Discussion Based on results there was a long run relationship between variables in veal, lamb, chicken, animal corn and soybean meal equation. Results showed that all the variables in the import demand equations including veal, lamb, animal corn and soybean meal has been expected signs. Also results showed that in the equation of veal import demand, the coefficients of tariff rate and relative price was negative and significant. In the equation of lamb import demand, the coefficient of domestic production of veal was negative and significant. Moreover, in the equation of animal corn import demand, the coefficients of tariff rate and real effective exchange rate were negative and significant. Eventually in the equation of soybean meal import demand, the coefficients of tariff rate, real effective exchange rate and relative price were negative and significant. Therefore, it can be noted that due to high dependence on imports of livestock inputs, especially animal corn and soybean meal, it is decided every year to import these inputs only basis of factors such as tariff rate, real effective exchange rate and relative price. Suggestion Based on results which showed that tariff rate has significant effect on the import demand of veal, animal corn and soybean meal, it is helpful to use this tool to control the import quantity of veal, animal corn and soybean meal, whereas changing tariff rate to control the import quantity of lamb do not have much effect. Also, it was found that the import demand for livestock inputs was highly elastic to change in real effective exchange rate. So, it is necessary to prevent unreasonable increase in exchange rate and its fluctuations. Since, it was found that the lamb import demand was highly elastic to domestic production, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase production of lamb through the provision of livestock inputs required by producers. JEL Classification: F12, F31, F41 وابستگی شدید به واردات گوشت قرمز و نهادههای دامی و کافی نبودن تولید داخلی آنها، موجب شده تا هر گونه تغییر سیاست در واردات این محصولات، رفاه بسیاری از تولیدکنندگان و مصرفکنندگان را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. نظر به ارتباط تنگاتنگ واردات این محصولات با امنیت غذایی کشور و رفاه جامعه، شناخت مؤلفههای اثرگذار بر تقاضای واردات این محصولات برای سیاستگذاری مناسب در این بخش اهمیت ویژهای دارد. در این بررسی عاملهای مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات انواع گوشت (شامل گوشت گوساله، گوشت گوسفند و گوشت مرغ) و نهادههای دامی (شامل ذرت و کنجاله سویا) با استفاده از الگوی تجارت جانشین ناقص بررسی شده است. پس از انجام آزمونهای آماری، تابعهای تقاضای واردات محصولات مورد نظر به روش سامانه معادلههای همزمان برآورد شد. متغیرهای مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات این محصولات شامل نرخ تعرفه، تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ مؤثر واقعی ارز، تولید داخلی و قیمت نسبی محصولات وارداتی میباشند. نتایج نشان داد که نرخ تعرفه تأثیر معنیدار و شایان توجهی بر تقاضای واردات گوشت گوساله، گوشت مرغ، ذرت دامی و کنجاله سویا دارد بنابراین استفاده از این ابزار برای کنترل واردات این محصولات بسیار اثرگذار میباشد در حالیکه تغییرپذیریهای نرخ تعرفه برای کنترل واردات گوشت گوسفند تأثیر چندانی ندارد. همچنین مشخص شد که تقاضای واردات نهادههای دامی مورد بررسی نسبت به تغییرپذیریهای نرخ مؤثر واقعی ارز کششپذیری بالایی دارند بنابراین بایستی با اتخاذ سیاستهای مناسب، از افزایش غیرمنطقی نرخ ارز و همچنین نوسانهای شدید آن جلوگیری شود.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37421_90796fb200ce1df9b83c21f1c1493715.pdf

انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 Evaluating the Ability of Interval Fuzzy and Robust Data Envelopment Analysis Models to determine the efficiency of Broiler Chicken Breeding Units in Khuzestan Province ارزیابی توانایی مدل‌های تحلیل پوششی داده‌های فازی بازه‌ای و استوار در تعیین کارایی واحدهای پرورش مرغ گوشتی استان خوزستان 29 56 37422 10.22034/iaes.2019.115291.1730 FA مصطفی مردانی نجف‌آبادی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی-دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان 0000-0001-6181-3505 عباس عبدشاهی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران. محمدرضا قربانی دانشیار گروه علوم دام، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان یاسمین زباری دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد- دانشگاه تهران Journal Article 2019 10 04 Introduction Chicken breeding production is one of the most agricultural subsectors in Iran and has a special position in the production and employment of the agricultural sector. According to the importance of chicken as a strategic protein product, investing in this field is inevitable. Due to high growth rate of birds compared to other livestock, the possibility of producing in all weather conditions and rapid return on investment, the poultry industry has a high priority to other industries. Optimum use of inputs and existing possibilities lead to an increase in production and reduce the fixed price, thereby increasing the Country's competitive and export potential and also an increase in the0 welfare of the society. Since increasing production by inputs development and technical changes has many limitations in developing countries, improving technical efficiency has been emphasized as a suitable approach. So investigating the efficiency of chicken breeding units and trying to improve this efficiency and optimum use of inputs has been a matter of importance. The main objective of this study is to measure technical efficiency of broiler breeding in Khuzestan Province by utilizing the models of RDEA and FIDEA model. Also, the sub-objectives such as estimating the optimal use of inputs in inefficient units and comparing the capability of RDEA and FIDEA models when deals with uncertain data are obtained. Materials and Methods Several techniques are used to evaluate decision making in production units. Data Envelop Analysis (DEA) model is widely used to evaluate relative efficiency in these units. Despite its numerous merits, one of its major limitations is high sensitivity to the uncertainty of data. To overcome this limitation, the method of Interval Data Envelop Analysis (IDEA) was introduced, yet this model also suffers from interpreting high and low ranges of efficiency. But this model also suffers from interpreting high and low ranges of efficiency. To deal with this issue, Fuzzy Data Envelop Analysis (FDEA) and Stochastic Data Envelop Analysis (SDEA) models were presented by researchers. These models also suffer from lack of point solutions, awareness of data distribution and ignoring the information of coefficient uncertainty respectively. To clear up the mentioned defects, the Robust Data Envelop Analysis (RDEA) model was developed in the late 1990s. In this study, FIDEA and RDEA models are applied to calculate the efficiency of decision making units under the condition of uncertainty. Moreover, Mont Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the capability of RDEA and FIDEA models against uncertain data and investigate their ability to deal with possible changes in input and output data. The necessary data were collected from the population of poultry production units in Khuzestan Province, by surveying a questionnaire of 105 production units that were selected using simple random sampling method. Results and discussion Based on the RDEA model output, the average technical efficiency of all production units in three probability levels of 0.1, 0.5 and 1 are 0.88, 0.91 and 0.93 respectively. The results also indicate that in three probability levels, the average efficiency of semi-industrial poultry production units is more than industrial ones. Calculating the technical efficiency by FIDEA show that in all levels of optimal use of resources, the high and low range of efficiency in semi-industrial poultry production units are more than industrial ones. Applying the inputs of drug, electricity and water cost, and area in industrial units and inputs of labor force and area in semi-industrial units are technically inefficient. The results of Mont Carlo simulation indicate that in RDEA model, by increasing system protection against uncertainty (decrease in p value), the ranking compatibility percentage is increased. The average ranking compatibility percentage for simulated data in all uncertainty scenarios in RDEA model is higher than FIDEA. Suggestion According to the results, since industrial poultry units are less efficient at using inputs than semi-industrial ones, these units must be the references for inefficient units. Moreover, since the cost of drug, affecting the inefficiency of poultry units, is one of the most important inputs, it is recommended that these units should be given the necessary training to use this input. Furthermore, since the RDEA model has more capability to protect the system against uncertainty, it is suggested that all corrective actions should be planned with respect to the outputs of this model. JEL Classification:: D61, Q1, C61, D81 وجود عدم حتمیت در داده‌های مورد استفاده در الگوی تحلیل پوششی داد‌ه‌ها امری پرهیز‌ناپذیر بوده و ضرورت استفاده از الگوهایی که توانایی کنترل این عدم حتمیت را دارا باشند، به شدت احساس می‌شود. در این بررسی، به تعیین کارایی واحدهای مرغداری گوشتی استان خوزستان پرداخته شده و به منظور لحاظ شرایط عدم حتمیت، از مدل تحلیل پوششی داده‌های استوار (RDEA) و فازی بازه‌ای (FIDEA) استفاده شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز با توزیع و تکمیل 105 پرسشنامه به صورت مصاحبه حضوری و با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی طبقه‌ای در سال 1396 گرد‌آوری شد. ارزیابی توانایی این دو مدل در برآورد کارایی واحدهای مرغداری با کمک شبیه‌سازی مونتکارلو انجام پذیرفت. نتایج نشان داد که میانگین کارایی فنی کل مرغداری‌ها در مدل RDEA در سه سطح احتمال 10، 50 و 100 درصد به ترتیب برابر 88%، 91% و 93% می‌باشد. نتایج مدلFIDEA نشان داد که چنانچه سطح فراسنجه α (استفاده بهینه از عامل‌های تولید) افزایش یابد، میانگین کارایی مرغداری‌های نیمه‌صنعتی و صنعتی افزایش می‌یابد. کاربرد نهاده‌های هزینه‌ی دارو، برق، آب و مساحت در مرغداری‌های صنعتی و نهاده‌های مساحت و شمار نیروی‌کار در مرغداری‌های نیمه‌صنعتی از نظر فنی ناکارا است. در این راستا، آموزش اصول پرورش طیور، مدیریت بهتر کابرد نهاده‌ها، تخصیص منبع‌های تولید و روش استفاده از تجهیزات در مرغداری‌ها برای افزایش کارایی پیشنهاد شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو نشان داد که میانگین درصد سازگاری رتبه‌بندی برای داده‌های شبیه‌سازیشده در همه‌ی سناریو‌های عدم حتیمت در مدل RDEA بیشتر از مدل FIDEA بوده و در این راستا، استفاده از نتایج آن برای بهبود وضعیت واحدهای ناکارا مناسب به نظر می‌رسد.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37422_83c10baf52b5877879d33bf2af54bf56.pdf

انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 Potentiometric sustainability of agricultural tourism in Selected Cities of Kerman Province سنجش توان بالقوه پایداری گردشگری کشاورزی در شهرستان های منتخب استان کرمان 57 85 37423 10.22034/iaes.2019.111098.1709 FA مریم ضیاآبادی استادیار گروه جهانگردی و هتلداری، دانشکده گردشگری، مجتمع آموزش عالی بم، بم ایران محمد رضا زارع مهرجردی دانشیار اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران سید عبدالمجید جلایی اسفندآبادی استاد اقتصاد بین الملل دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران 0000-0001-8154-9123 حسین مهرابی بشرآبادی استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان Journal Article 2019 07 10 Introduction One of the most attractive forms of the tourism industry is agritourism that emerged in the rural areas of all developed countries since the late 20th century and it has an important role to play in the development of these areas, which suffer from economic and social problems. Extensive tourist presence in the region damages ecosystems, the environment and undermines the culture of local residents. Different perspectives have been presented on the benefits and disadvantages of its variety in terms of environmental protection, tourist comfort and residents alongside tourism development. Therefore, It is necessary to consider the concept of sustainability, protection, protection and recycling of natural environments. Therefore, in this study, it is attempted to present stability indices of agritourism and construct stability indices. Finally, sustainable agricultural tourism potential is measured using mathematical programming method, which can achieve sustainable potential before agritourism development and adopting appropriate policy and sustainability plan. Materials & Methods In this study, agritourism is analyzed in terms of sustainability. Comprehensive indicators and measures of economic productivity, environmental considerations, and socio-cultural values of the community or region are examined to assess the potential of agritourism with emphasis on sustainability. These indicators are more applicable at the national and regional management level. Using these indicators in the potential of sustainable agritourism can play an important role in diversifying the economy and the environment. In general, it is necessary to evaluate agritourism along with sustainability. Results and discussion The results show that the three aspects of agritourism (social, economic and environmental) do not have the same level of sustainability. The level of environmental, economic and social sustainability of agritourism in Kerman are 0.191, 0.591 and 0.429 respectively, indicating that the level of environmental sustainability is lower than other aspects. The sustainability of the environmental, economic, and social aspects of agritourism in Bam is 0.269, 0.522 and 0.565, respectively, which indicates a low level of environmental sustainability. The environmental, economic, and social sustainability in Jiroft are 0.182, 0,320 and 0.299, respectively. The environmental sustainability is 0.112 and economic and social sustainability are 0.578 and 0.532 in Rafsanjan. The sustainability of the environmental, economic, and social aspects of agritourism in Sirjan, respectively are 0.132, 0.377 and 0.525. The sustainability of environmental, economic and social aspects of agritourism in Zarand city is respectively 0.109, 0.288 and 0.203. The environmental aspect has the lowest level of sustainability in all of the cities studied. In the next step, the overall sustainability of agritourism destination has been studied using a mathematical programming model. Suggestion Agricultural farms the main occupation of villagers and farmers will be at risk due to the inaccuracy of some tourists as well as the laws related to these lands.Sustainable agricultural development must pay attention to the sustainability of agricultural areas, and this sustainability must be taken in economic, environmental and social aspects. In other words, if agritourism is not properly managed, it will have negative effects such as increased waste, air, water and noise pollution, destruction of plant and animal diversity, and environmental degradation of the agricultural area, as well as economic and social damage such as rising prices. Land, increasing the cost of living in agricultural areas and destroying local cultures. Balancing these factors requires proper policy making, planning, and management. In order to increase the positive impacts and reduce the negative impacts, it is necessary to focus on coordinating the interests of different groups of local communities, tourism industry and tourists to reduce the negative environmental and environmental impacts at national and regional levels. JEL Classification:Q01, Q53, Q56, R58 امروزه بسیاری از کشورها برای داشتن رشد باثبات و پایدار، صنعت گردشگری را در اولویت قرار دادهاند. در میان شکلهای مختلف گردشگری، گردشگری کشاورزی میتواند به عنوان فعالیتی مکمل کشاورزی، یکی از روشهای کاهش خطرپذیری کشاورزان باشد زیرا کشاورزی تحت تاثیر عاملهای غیر قابل مدیریت و مهار زیادی قرار دارد. اما برای جلوگیری از اثرگذاریهای منفی توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی، باید تعاملی قوی بین ابعاد مختلف گردشگری کشاورزی برقرار کرد. هدف این بررسی پتانسیلسنجی پایداری گردشگری کشاورزی از طریق شاخصهای پایداری در سه بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیستمحیطی میباشد. برای دستیابی به این هدف، دادهها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز با استفاده از روش اسنادی و پرسشنامهای و نظرسنجی از خبرگان حوزه گردشگری و کشاورزی به روش دلفی، در شش شهرستان برتر گردشگری- کشاورزی استان کرمان در سال 1396 گردآوری شدهاند. سپس با استفاده از مدل برنامهریزی ریاضی و با کمک نرم افزارهای Spss، Excel و Gams سطح پایداری گردشگری کشاورزی به صورت عملی در شهرستانهای منتخب تعیین شده است. نتایج بررسی گویای آن است که با توجه به امکانات موجود و عدم وجود زیرساختهای مناسب، بعد زیستمحیطی گردشگری کشاورزی سطح پایداری قابل قبولی نداشته و نسبت به دیگر ابعاد گردشگری کشاورزی وضعیت نامناسبتری دارد به طوریکه سطح پایداری این بعد در شهرستانهای کرمان، بم، جیرفت، رفسنجان، سیرجان و زرند به ترتیب، 191/0، 269/0، 182/0، 112/0، 132/0 و 109/0 به دست آمده است. بنابراین لازم است برای توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی، بیش از پیش به اصول پایداری و حفاظت محیط زیست توجه شود تا ضمن دستیابی به سودمندیهای گردشگری کشاورزی از آسیب و زیانرسانیهای زیستمحیطی آن در راستای توسعه پایدار جلوگیری شود.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37423_87c9f6bccdb537339ee6fbaa0771aaaa.pdf

انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province تحلیل ارتباط بین تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، عملکرد و ریسک تولید محصولات کشاورزی؛ مطالعه گندم دیم استان فارس 87 110 37424 10.22034/iaes.2019.112167.1713 FA زهره رفیعی گروه آموزشی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران سید حبیب‌الله موسوی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس 0000-0002-6280-072X صادق خلیلیان دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی / دانشگاه تربیت مدرس Journal Article 2019 07 29 Introduction Wheat is one of the main strategic agricultural product. It is common human food source in developing countries such as Iran. Therefore, wheat production has indispensable role on food security in Iran. More than half cereals’ farms have been dedicated to wheat farming in Iran. This study intents to investigate the raised question “how does climate change affect wheat yield?” particularly in rain-fed wheat’s farms as a sensitive crop to climatic aspects as the study purpose. Materials and Method Random function of the Just and Pope (1978, 1979) base on Feasible Generalize List Square approach (FGLS) was utilized to examine the role of climatic and non-climatic factors on variance of rain-fed wheat yield in six regions including Abadeh, Eqlid, Marvdasht, Shiraz, Larestan and Lamerd through a period of 22 years (1995_2015). The data of temperature and precipitation were predicted through four-time period contains 2011-2030, 2031-2050, 2051-2070, and 2071-2090. Four scenarios including RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 relying on GFDL-CM3 model were developed to forecast climatic variables. Finally yield and its risk were analyzed. Results and discussion The results demonstrated precipitation as one of the most important factors with significance positive effect on rain-fed wheat’s yield, it predicted 1.61 percent of variation of rain-fed wheat’s yield. Moreover, the precipitation and temperature were found as reducing risk inputs on rain-fed wheat’s yield of Fars province. Findings illustrated that climate change will change temperature to be able to compensate loss due to reduced precipitation effect, because of both positive effect of temperature and precipitation. Suggestion According to study findings, some suggestions were presented to policy makers in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies for rain-fed wheat’s farmers in response to climate change. Our suggestions contain using heat resistant seed and using mechanical machines during wheat cultivation in order to cope negative effects of seed and labor on yield in recently years. JEL Classification: C23, C53, C87, Q57 این بررسی با هدف پاسخگویی به این پرسش بود که آیا پدیده تغییرپذیری اقلیم افزون بر عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی بر خطرپذیری (ریسک) عملکرد نیز تاثیرگذار است یا خیر، طرحریزی شد. بدین منظور محصول گندم دیم به عنوان یک کالای اساسی و نیز تأثیرپذیر از اقلیم در استان فارس گزینش شد. با استفاده از تابع تولید تصادفی جاست و پاپ و رهیافت کمینه مربعات تعمیمیافته قابل دسترس، اثرگذاری متغیرهای اقلیمی و غیراقلیمی در شش شهرستان آباده، اقلید، مرودشت، شیراز، لارستان و لامرد در سالهای 1374-1395بر میانگین و ریسک عملکرد ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که بارندگی به عنوان یکی از عاملهای اصلی پدیده تغییر اقلیم رابطهی مستقیم با عملکرد گندم دیم دارد، طوریکه این متغیر 61/1 درصد از تغییرپذیری عملکرد را پیشبینی کردهاست. افزون بر این، بارندگی و دما به عنوان نهادههای ریسککاهنده در تولید محصول گندم دیم استان فارس اثرگذار بودهاند. در نهایت، تغییراقلیم، شرایطی را فراهم میآورد تا میانگین دما توانمندی لازم برای جبران زیان ناشی از کاهش بارندگی را دارا باشد. با توجه به یافتههای پژوهش، تاکید میشود تا سیاستهای لازم، تامین و استفاده از بذرهای گندم مقاوم به گرما و مکانیزه کردن کشت، برای سازگاری با تغییراقلیم صورت پذیرد.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37424_3a0c652a9bb4387df21060f16048ce11.pdf

انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 The Effect of Organic Rice Consumption on households’ welfare in Shiraz: Willingness to Pay Price Premium تأثیر مصرف برنج ارگانیک بر مطلوبیت خانوارها در شیراز: گرایش به پرداخت مازاد 111 131 37425 10.22034/iaes.2019.116237.1735 FA سیده هاجر حسینی دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز محمد بخشوده اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران صمد عرفانی فر استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی داراب، دانشگاه شیراز Journal Article 2019 10 24 Introduction The growing people's awareness about the impact of food consumption on human health has led to serious consideration for the production and consumption of organic products, including rice in many countries. Rice is the second most used cereal after wheat in Iran where chemical fertilizers and pesticides are used for crop productions such as rice. Due to the lack of chemicals used in organic rice production, its consumption can be effective in reducing diseases and promoting community health. The global organic rice market that was valued at US$ 1,120 million in 2017 expected to reach US$ 1,390 million by the end of 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. Despite its vital role, there is no official market for organic rice in the country and to best of our knowledge; little researches have been done in this area so far. This study aims to estimate willingness to pay for organic rice, using contingent valuation method based on open-ended questions in Shiraz city, and to evaluate indirectly possible changes in households’ well-being in Shiraz by switching towards organic rice. Methodology Since consumers' willingness to pay as the dependent variable consists of zero and positive values, the Tobit model was utilized as the first step of this study. However, the Tobit model relies crucially on normality and homoscedasticity assumptions. If the error term is either heteroskedastic or nonnormal, the MLE is inconsistent. Therefore, in this study, after estimating the Tobit model, the hypotheses of homoskedasticity and normality of the residuals were tested and the results showed that these hypotheses are rejected. The Tobit regression makes a strong assumption that the same probability mechanism generates both the zero and the positives values. Heckman two-step model allows for the possibility that such values are generated by different mechanism. Also, this model allows for dependence in the two parts of the model. The Heckman two-step model comprises a selection (participation) equation and an outcome (WTP) equation. In the first step of the Heckman two-stage procedure, a Probit model was estimated and based on the results, the inverse Mills ratio was calculated. In the second step, an ordinary least squares regression for the positive values of the dependent variable (consumer’ willingness to pay for organic chicken meat) was estimated including the inverse Mills ratio as one of the explanatory variables. Results and Discussions The results of Probit model showed that the effects of gender and household size on the selection of organic rice by consumers are significant. Accordingly, women are more likely to buy organic rice than men and as household size decreases the probability of buying organic rice increases. But estimation of Heckman second stage showed that the effects of these variables on the price premium for organic rice are not significant. In other words, although women and families with low populations are more likely to choose organic rice, they are not willing to pay extra for organic rice. The results showed that education level has a positive and significant effect on both the selection and the willingness to pay for organic rice. Thus, the probability of organic rice being selected by the head of households with a college degree is 61% higher than that of uneducated households. The consumers’ willingness to pay with a college degree is about 39 % more than others. Household income is one of the most important variables influencing the choice and willingness to pay a premium for organic rice. The effect of this variable on consumers’ selection and willingness to pay for this product is positive and significant. According to the results, the probability of choosing organic rice by high-income households is 73% higher than low-income ones and their willingness to pay is 32% more. Conclusion and Suggestion The results of the data analysis showed that a significant percentage of people (about 89.3%) are willing to pay a price premium for organic rice consumption compared to their conventional type. Based on the findings of this study, it might be concluded that the more educated and richer families, the more they are willing to pay for organic rice, and presumably other organic foods, implying that their welfares go up significantly by switching from conventional rice to the organic rice consumption. Therefore, raising the awareness of people about the negative effects of pesticides and fertilizers application in conventional crop cultivation and the benefits of consuming organic rice can be effective in market development and increasing the willingness to pay for organic rice. To sum up with, it can be concluded that there is a potential consumption market for organic rice in Shiraz and rice producers in Fars province can benefit from it and start cultivating organic rice. JEL Classification: D12، D04، Q13 بهبود رفاه یا مطلوبیت افراد در نتیجه دستیابی به وضعیت بهتر ازجمله کاهش قیمت یا مصرف محصولات سلامت‌محور معادل میزان گرایش به پرداخت آنان است. به منظور بررسی تأثیر تغییر مصرف برنج از معمولی به ارگانیک روی مطلوبیت خانوارهای شیرازی، گرایش به پرداخت مازاد آنان برای چنین تغییری با استفاده از داده‌های ارزشگذاری مشروط با پرسش انتها باز و کاربرد روش دو مرحله‌ای هکمن برآورد شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز در خرداد ماه 1397 با تکمیل پرسشنامه به صورت تصادفی از 600 پاسخگو به دست آمد. تحلیل داده‌ها نشان داد که حدود 3/89 درصد از افراد حاضر به پرداخت مبلغ اضافه برای برنج ارگانیک نسبت به معمولی هستند. بنابر نتایج مدل پروبیت احتمال خرید برنج ارگانیک توسط زنان از مردان بیشتر است و همچنین با کاهش بعد خانوار احتمال انتخاب برنج ارگانیک توسط خانوارها افزایش می‌یابد. اما برآورد مرحله دوم مدل هکمن نشان داد که این متغیرها بر میزان گرایش به پرداخت مازاد تأثیر معنی‌داری ندارند. تأثیر سطح تحصیلات بر انتخاب و گرایش به پرداخت اضافه برای برنج ارگانیک مثبت و معنی‌دار برآورد شد، به طوری که احتمال انتخاب برنج ارگانیک توسط سرپرستان خانوار با مدرک دانشگاهی به میزان 61% بیشتر از خانوارهای بدون تحصیلات دانشگاهی است. همچنین میزان گرایش به پرداخت مازاد افراد با مدرک دانشگاهی نسبت به دیگران حدود 39 درصد بیشتر برآورد شد. تأثیر درآمد خانوار بر انتخاب و گرایش به پرداخت اضافه مصرف‌کنندگان برای برنج ارگانیک مثبت و معنی‌دار برآورد شد. احتمال انتخاب برنج ارگانیک توسط خانوارهای پردرآمد نسبت به کم درآمد حدود 73% و گرایش به پرداخت اضافه آنان نیز معادل 32% بیشتر است. بنابر یافته‌های این بررسی بازار مصرف بالقوه‌ای برای برنج ارگانیک در شهر شیراز وجود دارد و برنج‌کاران استان می‌توانند از برتری‌های آن استفاده و به کشت برنج ارگانیک مبادرت ورزند.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37425_d470133ccf31f9bfdc1dcb45a30c73b1.pdf

انجمن اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران Agricultural Economics 2008-5524 13 3 2019 11 22 Investigating factors affecting on conclusion and implementation in agricultural contracts (approach switching regression). بررسی عامل‌های مؤثر بر انعقاد و اجرای قراردادهای کشاورزی(رهیافت سویچینگ رگرسیون) 133 168 37436 10.22034/iaes.2019.86162.1583 FA مهدی محمودی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد 0009-0004-3981-6469 علیرضا کرباسی عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد Journal Article 2018 05 14 Introduction Agriculture has always been a risky activity and in this regard, one of the tools that today, especially in developing countries, plays an important role in tackling these risks and also the confidence of the farmer and guaranteeing the price of the product is the conclusion of agricultural contracts that the conclusion of agricultural contracts that increases the incentives for farmers to produce. expansion of agricultural contracting is important because demand for agricultural products increases with increasing income and population growth, and also increasing agricultural productivity and efficiency with the use of modern agricultural technologies. Given that much of the agriculture in developing countries is in small farms, agricultural contracts are usually used to improve the welfare of these producers, therefore in this study investigating the factors affecting the conclusion of agricultural contracts as well as the exchangeable income between different contracting groups of tomato farmers in Kermanshah province in 2018 has been discussed. The theoretical framework used in this study is that farmers and their decisions to choose the type of contract are always to maximize return on profit and minimize cost over time. These market contract alternatives can be divided into three different contract categories: written contracts, oral contracts, and non-contracts. Materials and Methods Since in Iran agricultural products (such as tomatoes) lack three types of private, cooperative and hybrid contracts, so in this study, only tomato farmers were investigated in three categories (written, oral and non-contractual). Cochran's formula was used to obtain a desirable sample, since the total number of members of the tomato community was not available. According to Cochran's formula, the optimal sample of farmers was calculated for the common trait of the cultivated area with standard deviation (0.31) and 95% confidence level of 150 farmers. Also, all questionnaires were collected randomly and interviewed with farmers in crop year 2018-2019. The dependent variable included codes 1, 2 and 3 that were considered for written, oral, and non-contractual contracts, respectively. Other explanatory variables included gender, education level, household size, vehicle ownership, computer access to up-to-date communication tools, relative product share in the household, area of cultivation, participation in training, other crop production, status of speculators in the region (zero and one). ), Access to credit, distance to market, amount of production per hectare, and revenue from the crop. This study, there were no sequential multiple responses and Multinomial Logit model was used to analyze the factors influencing the type of tomato crop contract. Multinomial Logit regression model is the generalization of simple (dual) logistic regression model in which the dependent variable takes more than two modes and there is no specific order between the selected options and finally to measure the traded earnings among different contracting groups. The regression switching approach was applied. In order to estimate the desired models STATA 15 software is used. Results and discussion The results of the study, apart from the various effects of variables applied on the surveyed groups, showed that the farmers group with a written and uncontacted contract receive 49 and 46 percent of their income by handing them over to the other group. AlsoFarmers with an oral contract and without a contract are respectively receive 42 and 52 percent of the revenue from placing their product in both contractual groups.In fact, the results show that there is no group of farmers who sell their entire crop under one contract and there is always the incentive to sell through other contracts. From the results of the regression switching approach it can be deduced that although the sample tomato farmers belong to different contracting groups. But they are interconnected. Because of the benefits that each contracting party has, they always receive part of their income from intervention in the other group. It is important to note that, first, not all farmers are required to accept a contracting group, secondly, the primary revenue generated from the crop is of great importance, and this leads to the interference of contracting groups. Suggestions Based on the above results, the main suggestion of this study is that contracting groups may even prioritize their payments to farmers in order to increase the confidence of tomato farmers in the province or in a multistage manner (before planting, during harvesting due to high labor costs). ) be done. This can reduce the incentive to sell farmers to other contracting groups. JEL Classification: D03, C24 کشاورزی همواره فعالیتی سرشار از مخاطره بوده و امروزه به‌ویژه در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه؛ انعقاد قراردادها در افزایش انگیزه تولید کشاورزان بسیار مؤثر است. اما نکته‌ای که در اغلب قراردادها موجود است این است که اغلب کشاورزان به خاطر دستیابی سریع‌تر به درآمد محصول فروخته‌شده؛ ناچار به دور زدن قرارداد و یا واگذاری محصول به گروه‌های دیگر قراردادی می‌شوند. در این بررسی سعی شده تا به ارزیابی عامل‌های موثر بر انعقاد و اجرای قراردادهای کشاورزی و همچنین درآمدهای ردوبدل‌شده بین گروه‌های مختلف قراردادی در میان کشاورزان گوجه‌فرنگی‌کار استان کرمانشاه در سال 1397 پرداخته شود. نمونه موردبررسی از طریق فرمول کوکران برابر 150 کشاورز گوجه‌کار در دشت کرمانشاه بود و پرسشنامه‌ها از هر کشاورز به‌ صورت مصاحبه چهره‌به‌چهره تکمیل شد. با توجه به تقسیم‌بندی متغیر وابسته به سه نوع قرارداد مکتوب، شفاهی و بدون قرارداد؛ الگوی رگرسیون چندگانه و برای سنجش درآمدهای ردوبدل‌شده در بین گروه‌های مختلف قراردادی، رهیافت سویچینگ رگرسیون به کار برده شد. نتایج تحقیق جدا از اثرگذاری‌های متفاوت متغیرهای به‌کار برده‌شده بر گروه‌های موردبررسی؛ نشان داد که گروه کشاورزان دارای قرارداد مکتوب و بدون قرارداد، به ترتیب 49 و 46 درصد از درآمد خویش را با واگذاری و ردوبدل‌کردن محصول خود به گروه دیگر دریافت می‌کنند. همچنین کشاورزان دارای قرارداد شفاهی و بدون قرارداد نیز به ترتیب 42 و 52 درصد از درآمد را از سویچ‌کردن محصول خود دریافت می‌کنند.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_37436_9be7eaf5887dcb7227031f81b6fb4005.pdf