تحلیل عوامل مؤثر و پیش‌بینی تقاضای نیروی کار در چشم‌انداز 1404 کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه ساری، مازندران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه اردکان

4 کارشناسی ارشد گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

10.22034/iaes.2021.523457.1812

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثر واردات بخش کشاورزی بر تقاضای نیروی‌کار (اشتغال) کشاورزی ایران برای دوره زمانی 1398-1357 و پیش‌بینی اشتغال این بخش برای چشم‌انداز 1404 است. در مطالعه حاضر، تقاضای نیروی‌کار در بخش کشاورزی تابعی از دستمزد، ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی، موجودی سرمایه و واردات منظور شده است. جهت برآورد رابطه هم‌جمعی و پویایی­های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت، از الگوهای خودرگرسیونی برداری و مدل تصحیح خطای برداری استفاده شد. همچنین از شبکه عصبی طراحی‌شده به دلیل کارایی بیشتر نسبت به دیگر الگوها در جهت پیش‌بینی اشتغال بخش کشاورزی ایران برای سال‌های 1399 تا 1404 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و موجودی سرمایه، دستمزد و واردات اثر منفی بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که روند کاهش سهم اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی ایران به نسبت کل اقتصاد تا سال 1404، همچون دهه­های گذشته ادامه خواهد داشت و از رشد سالانه 03/1 درصد به 77/0 درصد می­رسد. در نهایت سیاست‌های دولت باید با هدف افزایش ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی اجرایی شود تا از این طریق شغل‌های جدید، امنیت غذایی و خودکفایی فراهم شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Amini, A., Khosravi Nezhad, A. and Alizadeh, Z. (2012). Analysis of the Impact of Export Development on Employment; A Case Study of High-Tech Industries in Iran. The Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 6(19):135-174. (In Farsi).
Azarinfar, Y. and Torkmani, G. (2005). Impact of Technology Growth and Exports on Labor Employment in the Agricultural Sector. Journal of Iranian Agricultural Sciences, 36(5):1223-1231. (In Farsi).
Bostan, Y., Shafei, S., Fatahiardakani, A., Erfani, R. (2021). Checking the effect of granted credits on demand for labor in sub-sectors of agriculture. Agricultural Economics Research, 13(1), 45-62. (In Farsi).
Dahmarde, N. and Alizadeh, S. (2016). A Survey on the Relationship between Import and Demands of Work-force and Sanction Variable in Agriculture Sector. Journal of Economics Science, 11(21): 33-57. (In Farsi).
Davidson, C., Matusz, S. and Shevchenko, A. (2008). Globalization and Firm Level Adjustment with Imperfect Labor Markets. Journal of International Economics, 75: 295-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.02.004
Fehresti sani, M., Fatahi, A., Bostan, Y. and Rezvani, M. (2017). Analysis on stability of trade patterns for the selected countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Agricultural Economics, 11(1), 53-67. (In Farsi). http://doi:10.22034/iaes.2017.23473
Ghadiri, M. Mahdavi, M and Barghi, H. (2007). Statistical Study of Employment Growth and Developments in Rural Areas of Isfahan Province. Journal of Geographical research, 37 (54),153-175. (In Farsi).
Golestani, SH. Gorgini, M. and Hajabbasi, F. (2012). A Comparison of the Predictive Ability of VAR, ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Models: OPEC’s Oil Demand. Iranian Energy Economics Researches, 1(4), 145-168. (In Farsi).
Greenville, J., Kawasaki, K. and Jouanjean, M. (2019). Employment in Agriculture and Food Trade: Assessing the Role of GVCs. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 124, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5ed3b181-en.
Guo, W. W. and Xue, H. (2014). Crop Yield Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks: A comparison between Spatial and Temporal Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/857865.
Jalayee, S A. and Javdan, A. (2010). The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Employment of Iranian Agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 2(4): 135-150. (In Farsi).
Jalayee, S.A. and Sattari, O. (2012). The Survey of and Forecasting the Effect of Globalization on Urban Income Distribution in Iran Using Artificial Neural Network. Economic Growth and Development research, 1(4): 144-117. (In Farsi).
Kamijani, A. and QHavidel, S. (2006). The Role of Trade Liberalization on Labor Markets and Estimate the Labor Demand in Iran. Economics Research, 6(20): 13-41. (In Farsi).
Karbasi, A.R., Asnashari, H. and Aghel, H. (2008). Forecasting Agricultural Sector Employment in Iran. Journal of Economics in agricultural development (Science and Technology of Agriculture), 22(2): 31-42. (In Farsi).
Lichter, A., Peichl, A. and Siegloch, S. (2017). Exporting and Labour Demand: Micro‐level Evidence from Germany. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 50(4): 1161-1189. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12290
Management and Planning Organisation of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2019). <www.mporg.ir >. (In Farsi).
Ministry of Cooperatives Labour and Social Welfare. (2020). http://www.Mcls.gov.ir
Monjezi, M., Ghobadi, S. and Afghah, S. (2011). The Study of Short Run and Long Run Effects of Trade Liberalization on Iran’s Wheat Import. Agricultural Economics & Development, 24(4):526-532.  (In Farsi).
Najafi, P., Fehresti sani, M., Bostan, Y. and Fatahi ardakani, A. (2020). Estimation of Iran Sugar Import Demand Function (ARDL Approach). Journal of Sugar Beet, 35(2): 207-216. (In Farsi). http://doi:10.22092/jsb.2020.127496.1226
Narimani, R., Hakimipour, N. and Rezaei, A. (2013). Application of Artificial Neural Network Method and Conditional non-conformance Variance Models in Calculating Value at Risk. The Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 7(24), 101-137. (In Farsi).
Nasr Esfahani, R., Safari, B. and Latifi, M. (2017). Analysis of economic effective factors on the housing price bubble (Case Study: Tehran). Journal of Economic Research, 52(1): 163-186. (In Farsi).
Nassabian, SH., Qavidel, S. and FathAbadi, M. (2008). Prediction of Agricultural Employment in the Horizon of 1404. Agricultural extension and education research, 2(1): 59-74. (In Farsi).
Olson, D. and Mossman, C. (2003). Neural network forecasts of Canadian stock returns using accounting ratios. International Journal of Forecasting, 19(3): 453-465. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00058-4
Sadeghi, H. and Homayonifar, M. (2001). The Role of Agriculture in Providing Jobs and Reducing Unemployment. Economic research, 1(1): 17-34. (In Farsi).
Saeidaei, S A., Bahari, A. and Zarei, A. (2001). Study of the Status of Employment and Unemployment in Iran during the years 2000- 1956. Yas Strategy, 25: 217-247.(In Farsi).
Shafei, S., Bostan, Y., Fatahiardakani, A., jahangirpor, D., Erfani, R. (2020). Predicting and Studying the Effect of Uncertainty in the Real Exchange Rate on the Agricultural Department Imports of Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 12(47), 125-150. (In Farsi).
Shiri, Y. and Rahman, L. (2010). Analyzing and Estimating Labor Demand Function in Kermanshah Province. Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 14 (1):101-127. (In Farsi).
Sohaili, K., Fatahi, S. and Mohammadi, S. (2018). Investigating the Role and Effects of Private and Public Investment on Employment in Provinces of Iran: GMM approach. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(24): 121-148. (In Farsi).
Sohrabi, R. (2017). Comparison of Econometric Models and Artificial Neural Networks to Predict of Iran Oilcake Imports. 47(3): 633-646. (In Farsi).
Tavakoli, A. and Sayah, M. (2010). The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Country's Economic Activities. Quarterly Journal of Money and Economics, 4: 59-77. (In Farsi).
Tayebi, S K. and Zakerfar, N. (2008). Effect of Commercial Liberalization on the Level of Employment in the Country. Journal Development and Capital, 1(1): 27-46. (In Farsi).
Tian, W., Yao, Y., Yu, M. and Zhou, Y. (2013). Population Structure and International Trade. Economic Research, 11: 1-13.
Tine, D. and Freddy, H. (2005). Fiscal Policy, Employment and Growth: Why Is Continental Europe Lagging Behind? Paper presented at the Ecomod 2005 Conference, Istanbul.
Tkacz, G. (2001). Neural Network Forecasting Of Canadian GDP Growth. International Journal of Forecasting, 17: 57-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00063-7
Valipour, M., Banihabib, M. E. and Behbahani, S. M. R. (2013). Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the Autoregressive Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting the Monthly Inflow of Dez Dam Reservoir. Journal of hydrology, 476(7): 433-441.
Yazdkhasti, B. and Ahmadi, V. (2007). A Survey of Women's Activity and Employment in Iran with Emphasis on the 2007 Census. Journal of Women Research (Journal of Women Studies). 1 (3):9-32. (In Farsi).
Zahedani Mazandarani, M. (2004). Functional Requirements for the Development of Employment in the Agricultural Sector. Scientific and Research Quarterly Research Institute for Agricultural Planning and Economics, 12(45): 41-67. (In Farsi).
Zhang, H., Xie, J. and Zheng, J. (2010). Determinants and Potential of China-Africa Agricultural Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model. Paper presented at the Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE), 2010 International Conference on. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMSE.2010.5719888
Zhang, X., Yang, J. and Thomas, R. (2017). Mechanization Outsourcing Clusters and Division of Labor in Chinese Agriculture. China Economic Review, 43: 184-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.01.012