تحلیل عوامل مؤثر و پیش‌بینی تقاضای نیروی کار در چشم‌انداز 1404 کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه ساری، مازندران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه اردکان

4 کارشناسی ارشد گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثر واردات بخش کشاورزی بر تقاضای نیروی‌کار (اشتغال) کشاورزی ایران برای دوره زمانی 1398-1357 و پیش‌بینی اشتغال این بخش برای چشم‌انداز 1404 است. در مطالعه حاضر، تقاضای نیروی‌کار در بخش کشاورزی تابعی از دستمزد، ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی، موجودی سرمایه و واردات منظور شده است. جهت برآورد رابطه هم‌جمعی و پویایی­های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت، از الگوهای خودرگرسیونی برداری و مدل تصحیح خطای برداری استفاده شد. همچنین از شبکه عصبی طراحی‌شده به دلیل کارایی بیشتر نسبت به دیگر الگوها در جهت پیش‌بینی اشتغال بخش کشاورزی ایران برای سال‌های 1399 تا 1404 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و موجودی سرمایه، دستمزد و واردات اثر منفی بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که روند کاهش سهم اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی ایران به نسبت کل اقتصاد تا سال 1404، همچون دهه­های گذشته ادامه خواهد داشت و از رشد سالانه 03/1 درصد به 77/0 درصد می­رسد. در نهایت سیاست‌های دولت باید با هدف افزایش ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی اجرایی شود تا از این طریق شغل‌های جدید، امنیت غذایی و خودکفایی فراهم شود.

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