کاربرد رهیافت پارامتریک در تعیین حق بیمه درآمد برای محصول سیب‌‌ زمینی در استان آذربایجان‌شرقی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه تبریز

10.22034/iaes.2019.34564

چکیده

بیمه به عنوان ابزار مدیریت‌ ریسک در بخش کشاورزی راهکاری برای پوشش نوسانات درآمد کشاورزان بوده و از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. در این مطالعه با توجه به نوسان قیمت و عملکرد سیب‌زمینی در استان آذربایجان‌شرقی طی دوره زمانی 1394-1364، اقدام به محاسبه حق بیمه درآمد این محصول گردید. بدین منظور، مقادیر آتی قیمت و عملکرد محصول با استفاده از روش هموارسازی هالت و وینترز پیش‌بینی شد. سپس، درآمد پیش‌بینی شده و تضمینی در سطح پوشش 60%، 75%، 80%، 85%، 90% و 95% برآورد گردید. پس از روندزدایی، توزیع لوگ‌نرمال برای قیمت و توزیع بتا برای عملکرد، و توزیع‌های مشترک قیمت و عملکرد محصول از طریق رهیافت تجزیه چولسکی محاسبه شد. در نهایت با استفاده از این توزیع‌ها و شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو، حق بیمه درآمد محصول سیب‌زمینی در سطح پوشش 60 % برابر با 269/957 هزار ریال ریال تعیین گردید. براساس یافته‌‌‌های تحقیق، حق بیمه عملکرد محصول سیب‌زمینی در سال زراعی 1395-1394 برابر با 2040 هزار ریال در هکتار می‌باشد، منفی بودن ضریب همبستگی بین قیمت و عملکرد باعث گردیده حق بیمه درآمد کمتر از حق بیمه عملکرد ‌باشد لذا این محصول دارای شرایط بهتری برای توسعه بیمه درآمد برخوردار می‌باشد. بنابراین سیاست‌گذاران می‌توانند به منظور مقابله با تغییرات قیمت و عملکرد این محصول، بیمه درآمد را توسعه داده و از ریسک درآمد کشاورزان بکاهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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