بررسی عامل‌های مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات انواع گوشت و نهاده‌های دامی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

4 دانشگاه کنتاکی

5 استاد گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

10.22034/iaes.2019.114832.1727

چکیده

وابستگی شدید به واردات گوشت قرمز و نهاده­های دامی و کافی نبودن تولید داخلی آن­ها، موجب شده تا هر گونه تغییر سیاست در واردات این محصولات، رفاه بسیاری از تولید­کنندگان و مصرف­کنندگان را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. نظر به ارتباط تنگاتنگ واردات این محصولات با امنیت غذایی کشور و رفاه جامعه، شناخت مؤلفه­های اثر­گذار بر تقاضای واردات این محصولات برای سیاست­گذاری مناسب در این بخش اهمیت ویژه­ای دارد. در این بررسی عامل­های مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات انواع گوشت (شامل گوشت گوساله، گوشت گوسفند و گوشت مرغ) و نهاده­های دامی (شامل ذرت و کنجاله سویا) با استفاده از الگوی تجارت جانشین ناقص بررسی شده است. پس از انجام آزمون­های آماری، تابع­های تقاضای واردات محصولات مورد نظر به روش سامانه معادله­های همزمان برآورد شد. متغیرهای مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات این محصولات شامل نرخ تعرفه، تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ مؤثر واقعی ارز، تولید داخلی و قیمت نسبی محصولات وارداتی می­باشند. نتایج نشان داد که نرخ تعرفه تأثیر معنی­دار و شایان توجهی بر تقاضای واردات گوشت گوساله، گوشت مرغ، ذرت دامی و کنجاله سویا دارد بنابراین استفاده از این ابزار برای کنترل واردات این محصولات بسیار اثر­گذار می­باشد در حالی­که تغییرپذیری­های نرخ تعرفه برای کنترل واردات گوشت گوسفند تأثیر چندانی ندارد. همچنین مشخص شد که تقاضای واردات نهاده­های دامی مورد بررسی نسبت به تغییرپذیری­های نرخ مؤثر واقعی ارز کشش­پذیری بالایی دارند بنابراین بایستی با اتخاذ سیاست­های مناسب، از افزایش غیرمنطقی نرخ ارز و همچنین نوسان­های شدید آن جلوگیری شود.

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