تحلیل ارتباط بین تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، عملکرد و ریسک تولید محصولات کشاورزی؛ مطالعه گندم دیم استان فارس

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آموزشی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی / دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

10.22034/iaes.2019.112167.1713

چکیده

این بررسی با هدف پاسخگویی به این پرسش بود که آیا پدیده تغییرپذیری اقلیم افزون بر عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی بر خطرپذیری (ریسک) عملکرد نیز تاثیرگذار است یا خیر، طرح­ریزی شد. بدین منظور محصول گندم دیم به عنوان یک کالای اساسی و نیز تأثیرپذیر از اقلیم در استان فارس گزینش شد. با استفاده از تابع تولید تصادفی جاست و پاپ و رهیافت کمینه مربعات تعمیم­یافته قابل دسترس، اثرگذاری متغیرهای اقلیمی و غیراقلیمی در شش شهرستان آباده، اقلید، مرودشت، شیراز، لارستان و لامرد در سال­های 1374-1395بر میانگین و ریسک عملکرد ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که بارندگی به عنوان یکی از عامل­های اصلی پدیده تغییر اقلیم رابطه­ی مستقیم با عملکرد گندم دیم دارد، طوریکه این متغیر 61/1 درصد از تغییرپذیری عملکرد را پیش­بینی کرده­است. افزون بر این، بارندگی و دما به عنوان نهاده­های ریسک­کاهنده در تولید محصول گندم دیم استان فارس اثرگذار بوده­اند.  در نهایت، تغییراقلیم، شرایطی را فراهم می­آورد تا میانگین دما توانمندی لازم برای جبران زیان ناشی از کاهش بارندگی را دارا باشد. با توجه به یافته­های پژوهش، تاکید می­شود تا سیاست­های لازم، تامین و استفاده از بذرهای گندم مقاوم به گرما و مکانیزه کردن کشت، برای سازگاری با تغییراقلیم صورت پذیرد.
 

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