بررسی راهبردهای مدیریتی مقابله با تغییرات اقلیم جهت کاهش فقر خانوارهای کشاورز دشت همدان-بهار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

رخداد تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، از طریق ایجاد تغییر در عرضه و قیمت محصول‌های کشاورزی، سودآوری تولید در این بخش را تحت الشعاع قرار می‌دهد. لذا جنبه‌های مختلف تنگدستی همگام با دسترسی فیزیکی و اقتصادی به مواد غذایی دستخوش نوسان خواهد شد. بر این مبنا به منظور سیاست‌گذاری مؤثر برای سازگاری با شرایط جدید اقلیمی، برآوردهای درستی از تغییرپذیری‌های تنگدستی در جامعه که در نتیجه‌ی تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم ایجاد خواهد شد، مورد نیاز است. با توجه به این رویکرد، در این مطالعه پیامدهای بالقوه‌ی پیش‌بینی‌های مختلف اقلیمی بر الگوی کشت دشت همدان- ‌بهار، با در نظر گرفتن سال زراعی 1397-1396 به عنوان سال پایه، بررسی و میزان تأثیرپذیری منبع‌های آبی، تولید، درآمد و در پی آن، تنگدستی جامعه‌ی روستایی در بخش کشاورزی این دشت ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که با در نظر گرفتن رویکردی میانه در پیش‌بینی تغییرپذیری‌های اقلیم، همگام با افزایش سالانه‌ی عمق پمپاژ آب زیرزمینی به میزان 86/0 متر در دوره‌ی برنامه‌ریزی 20 ساله‌ی تحقیق، ارزش حال درآمد خالص تولیدکنندگان و در پی  آن شاخص‌های نسبت سرشمار تنگدستی، شکاف تنگدستی و شدت تنگدستی در بخش کشاورزی منطقه در مقایسه با شرایط کنونی به ترتیب به میزان 13 درصد کاهش، 15، 33 و 17 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. با این حال، اتخاذ راهبردهای مدیریتی، بهبود شکل‌های مختلف تنگدستی به ترتیب تا سطح 9، 20 و 10 درصد را در پی خواهد داشت.

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