Simulation Farmers’ Response to Increasing Prices of Agricultural Products Policy: Case Study Cities of Qazvin Province

The main objective of this study is to simulate farmers’s response to the increasing prices of agricultural products policy in the cites of Qazvin province. The corn in city of Alborz and tomatoes in city of Abyek that have high volatility in the market price were studied. To achieve this goal, an economic modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming and State Wide Agricultural Production Function was used. In following the farmers’s response to the increasing prices of agricultural products policy under the scenarios 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 percent was simulated and created changes in cropping pattern and farmer's gross profit were analyzed. The required data were related to the year 2011-2012 that with referring directly to the relevant organizations in Qazvin province were collected. The results showed that with increase in the price of tomatoes and corn, farmers cites of Abyek and Albrz tends to increase the acreage of these crops to achieve the more profits and decreases the acreage of products with lower returns. Also, the results showed that increases the farmer's gross profit of Abyek 4/18 to 20/39 percent with increasing the price of tomato and increases farmer's gross profit of Alborz 3/02 to 19/4 percent with increasing the price of corn. To effectiveness of the increasing prices of agricultural products policy, the use of supplementation policies in the supply side of inputs and products and also the use of auxiliary policies in the water resources side simultaneously with this police were proposed.