Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Fluctuations of Total Factor Productivity of Rainfed Wheat Production in Important Producing Provinces in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professors of Agricultural Economics, Institute of Planning Research, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran

2 Agricultural Planning Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Natural resources and environmental economics, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Introduction
This study was conducted to investigate the effective components in the fluctuations of the total factor productivity of rainfed wheat production with emphasizing the role of climate change in the important provinces that produce rainfed wheat in Iran.
Materials and Methods
For this purpose, a True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model was estimated using panel data and the obtained coefficients were used for calculating the proposed productivity index .
Results and Discussion
The results of estimation of True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model show that the variables of seed, pesticides, labor force, cultivated area, technological progress, square of air temperature, effective rainfall and square of effective rainfall have a significant and positive effect on the production of rainfed wheat while the air temperature has a negative and significant effect on the production of rainfed wheat. The results of calculating CATFP index of rainfed wheat show the existence of fluctuations in it. The analysis of the contribution of factors affecting changing the CATFP index showed that this index is mainly influenced by technological changes and then climate changes. After that, scale efficiency and technical efficiency are in the third and fourth places of influencing the CATFP index.
Suggestion
• Based on the results, the technical efficiency gap is 38% as a result of the influence of climatic variables. Therefore, the development of appropriate measures to adapt and mitigation to climate change is particularly important.
• Also, the proper management of rainwater and its storage for use in the production process of rainfed wheat, can be suggested, and in this regard, the financial and technical support of the government will be inevitable.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Agricultural Economics
Volume 17, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
February 2024
Pages 137-163

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