1
Agricultural Planning; Economic and Rural Development Research Institute
2
Agricultural Planning Economic and Rural Development Research Institute
10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096
Abstract
The occurrence of global crises such as economic recessions, financial crises, escalating trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea, coupled with an increase in various uncertainties, has caused severe fluctuations in food prices in food-importing countries, including Iran. In this context, the present study examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of global economic policy uncertainty on food prices in Iran. To achieve this, data for the years 1991-2022 were collected and analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results indicate that both in the short term and long term, the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is positive and significant. Furthermore, the effect of this uncertainty on food inflation in Iran is asymmetric in both the long and short term, with an increase in global economic policy uncertainty having a positive and significant effect on food inflation, whereas a decrease in uncertainty does not significantly affect food inflation. Additionally, the long-term effect of an increase in global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation is greater than its short-term effect, and the coefficient for the increase in global economic policy uncertainty is significantly larger than that for its decrease. Managing the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on food prices in Iran requires a multi-faceted and comprehensive approach, including diversifying food supply sources, establishing strategic food reserves, and strengthening international cooperation and trade agreements. Finally, the results show that variables such as money supply, per capita GDP, informal exchange rates, and global food crises positively affect food prices in Iran both in the short term and long term. At the same time, trade liberalization has had a negative impact on food prices in Iran.
heydari,R , Shabanzadeh Khoshroodi,M and Javdan,E . (2025). Investigating the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran. (e725232). Agricultural Economics, (), e725232 doi: 10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096
MLA
heydari,R , , Shabanzadeh Khoshroodi,M , and Javdan,E . "Investigating the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran" .e725232 , Agricultural Economics, , , 2025, e725232. doi: 10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096
HARVARD
heydari R, Shabanzadeh Khoshroodi M, Javdan E. (2025). 'Investigating the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran', Agricultural Economics, (), e725232. doi: 10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096
CHICAGO
R heydari, M Shabanzadeh Khoshroodi and E Javdan, "Investigating the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran," Agricultural Economics, (2025): e725232, doi: 10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096
VANCOUVER
heydari R, Shabanzadeh Khoshroodi M, Javdan E. Investigating the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on food inflation in Iran. Agricultural Economics. 2025;():e725232 (In Persian). doi: 10.22034/iaes.2025.2047092.2096