Introduction: Forest ecosystems are essential for biodiversity, climate regulation, and rural livelihoods. The Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran, have faced growing pressure from industrial expansion, especially in the wood sector. In recent decades, forest degradation has intensified due to rising wood consumption, population growth, and illegal logging. Understanding the drivers of forest cover change is crucial for sustainable resource management.
Material and methods: This study investigates the long-term relationship between wood industry development and forest cover in the Hyrcanian region of northern Iran, focusing on three provinces (Golestan, Mazandaran, and Gilan) during the period from 2001 to 2023, using annual panel data. The theoretical framework is based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), which suggests a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation.
The dependent variable, forest area, was derived using ArcGIS software, based on satellite imagery and official land cover maps. Independent variables include industrial wood consumption, rural population, illegal logging, annual rainfall and the implementation status of the Forest Breathing Law as a policy intervention indicator.
To assess the dynamic relationships among these variables, the study applied the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model, which allows for estimating both short-run and long-run effects.
Results and discussion: The results indicate that during the initial phase of industrial development, wood consumption had a significant negative impact on forest cover in the Hyrcanian region. However, with the implementation of environmental policies, improved consumption patterns, and increased ecological awareness, the intensity of deforestation declined, and a trend of forest regeneration emerged. The findings confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between wood industry growth and forest cover, consistent with the EKC hypothesis. In addition, rural population growth and illegal logging had significant negative effects on forest area, while seasonal rainfall and the implementation of the Forest Breathing Law positively contributed to forest regeneration in recent years.