This study was conducted to assess the risk of production and profit for irrigated and rainfed wheat in different provinces of the country, utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation method along with the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) indicators. For this purpose, time-series data on wheat yield, price, and production costs from 1983-84 to 2021-22 (Persian years 1362-1400) were collected and simulated with 10,000 iterations to obtain the probability distribution of profit and yield at the provincial level. Subsequently, by defining a risk threshold based on the historical average yield and the opportunity cost of capital (the bank interest rate), the probability of profit and yield falling below this threshold was calculated for each province. Such a simultaneous comparison of profit and production risk has not been conducted in similar studies. The results revealed that profit and yield risk are highly heterogeneous among provinces; in many rainfed wheat-producing provinces, the probability of falling into the loss zone or having a yield below the conventional level is very high, exceeding 70 to 90 percent in some cases. In contrast, some irrigated wheat-producing provinces, despite fluctuations, have a higher expected profit and manageable risk. The findings emphasize that reliance solely on guaranteed prices is insufficient for managing profit risk. It is essential to design regional risk-based policies, develop yield and income insurance, utilize new financial instruments, and revise cropping patterns to reduce risk and enhance the livelihood sustainability of wheat farmers.