The Impact of Money Supply Increase on Agricultural Prices Compared with Industrial and Services Prices

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Considering the effect of money supply increase on agricultural prices, Identification of the relationships between variables plays an important role in the implementation of appropriate economic policies. This research attempts to probe the equilibrium relationship between money supply increase and the prices of economic sectors focusing on Iran’s agricultural sector based on the quarterly time series data set during the period of 1991-2010. For this reason the relationship between variables is analyzed using Johansen’s cointegration test along with a vector error correction model (VECM) and later the relationship between variables is extracted using the impulse response functions (IRF). Estimation results indicate that supply money increase has a stronger influence on agricultural prices in the short-run, while industrial and services prices are fixed. In addition, the changes of supply of money in the long-run has direct effect on agriculture, industry and services price, but the strongest impact on agricultural prices is caused by industrial price variability.

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