The Analysis of the causal relationship between financial repression Indicators and agricultural exports by using causal Bayesian networks

The main objective of this study is  to analysis the causal relationship between financial repression indicators, along with other Effective factors on the value of agricultural exports .For this purpose, by using time series data, The theoretical foundations,First relation each of the Effective variables on the value of agricultural exports Been defined in terms of causal map and Then  by using Principles of causal Bayesian networks is provided independent causal map , Then Under various scenarios to assess the impact of each of the interest variables are discussed. The results show between Indicators of financial repression, the least Impact is relation to the liquidity ratio to GDP and The most Impact is relation to interest rate .Also, between Effective variables on the value of agricultural exports, Variable exchange rate have a greater impact on the value of agricultural exports. Therefore, In order to study propose interest rate cut, As one of the instruments of  financial repression is not  good policy to encourage domestic and foreign investment and it  can affect Exports and economic growth in different sectors. Also, despite the high impact of exchange rate, this policy in order to increase agricultural exports Alone cannot be a successful and efficient policy. Government to promote exports of agricultural products while using the appropriate foreign exchange policies to support and encourage exports of agricultural products, apply policies to promote Agricultural products such as policies to increase productivity of soil and water.