Analysing the Role of Economic Variables on Food Prices in the Selected Oil Exporting and Importing Countries

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Abstract

Fluctuation in food price and its effect on food security and society welfare has led economists to be interested in evaluating factors affecting the food price; Identifying these factors is an appropriate approach to reduce the negative consequences of such a fluctuation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of economic variables on the food price index of oil exporting and importing countries during 2000 to 2013. The monthly data was provided for this period. For this purpose, in this study was used of Panel vector autoregressive models. Regression model coefficients revealed the effect of oil price lags on the food price to be more obvious in exporting countries in comparison to those of importing ones. On the other side, the results of impulse response function showed that food price and interesting rate shocks had a transitory effect, while oil price, fertilizer price and exchange rate shocks had permanent effects on the food price. In addition, the results suggested the food price shocks to consist more than 90% of fluctuation in both exporting and importing countries.

Keywords

Main Subjects