The effect of climate change on the yield of major cereals in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD student in Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics university of tehran.

3 Master's Student in Agricultural Economics.Ferdowsi university of mashhad.

4 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Abstract

The research aim is to study the yield including irrigated and dry-farmed wheat, barley, and corn in the climate and sub-climates of the country. So, the average yield of the studied products, average rainfall, and average temperature data have been used for the climatic change from the period 1982-2015. Due to the fact that cereal products over 56% and 77% of the cultivated area in arid and semi-arid regions, respectively. Therefore, in this study, only cereal are studied and among all of the crops, they have been selected, the five crops that have the highest area under cultivation. Finally, the function of various crops’ demands was used to investigate the effects of climate change on crops.The results show that the highest yield coefficients of rainfall are to precipitation in cold and sub-climates semi-arid cold, semi-arid hot, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, dryland barley, dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. In addition, the highest coefficients of function of demands to temperature in cold and sub-climates of semi-arid cold, semi-arid warm, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, dryland barley, irrigated wheat and dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. According to the results of the research and in order to efficiently manage production and better performance, agricultural products in climates and sub-climates in the country are recommended. Compilation of a comprehensive cultivation model and allocation of the type of crop cultivation in the climate and sub-climate should be done by considering the reaction rate of the yield of the products and the exploitation of most of the mentioned products.

Keywords

References

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