Agricultural Economics

Agricultural Economics

Investigating the impact of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of selected agricultural products in Jiroft city

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Mohammadjavad Mehdizadeh rayeni 1
hamid mohammadi 2
Saman Ziaee 3
ali azareh 4
1 University of Zabol
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Zabol, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Jiroft University, Jiroft, Iran
10.22034/iaes.2024.2033160.2069
Abstract
Climate change has had a significant impact on the global production of agricultural products. Studying the impact of climate change on the production of agricultural products is very important for making preventive decisions to improve agriculture. The aim of this research is to simulate the cultivation pattern of Selected agricultural products in Jiroft city under the influence of different climatic scenarios. For this purpose, at the beginning, the effect of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the performance of selected crops in the period of 1370-1401 was investigated using regression analysis. Then, using HasGEM3 general circulation model, the climate variables of Jiroft city were predicted for the periods (2011-2045), (2046-2065), (2066-2079) and (2080-2099). In the end, by using the positive mathematical programming approach, the cultivation pattern of the area was simulated and the effects of climate change on the cultivation pattern in the mentioned periods were investigated. The results showed that the climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation have a significant effect on the area under cultivation, yield, income, profit and the amount of production of selected products. Also, by applying the forecast of climate variability in the cultivation pattern model of all selected crops in the periods (2011-2045), (2046-2065), (2066-2079) and (2080-2099) based on The noses of the HasGEM3 model are affected by different climate scenarios. Considering the effects of climate change and improving the productivity of agricultural products, it is one of the bad effects of this phenomenon. The results of this research can be useful in agricultural planning and economic development of Jiroft city.
Keywords
Climate Change
General Circulation Model (GCMs)
Simulation
Cultivation pattern
Jiroft city

Subjects

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