Agricultural Economics

Agricultural Economics

Evaluating the relationships and price shocks of pistachios in the world markets and measuring the position of Iran in the global export of pistachios

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Doctoral student of Tehran University of Agriculture and Natural Resources
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Gilan
Abstract
Pistachios, the most important agricultural export product of Iran in the last decade, are facing a decline in exports and competitiveness in the global market. One of the main reasons for the weakening of Iran's position in the global pistachio market is the improvement of the export power of the United States. The main question of this research is whether the United States has truly replaced Iran in the competitiveness of the global pistachio market.
determine the appropriate model for examining the relationship between the export prices of pistachios from Iran, Turkey, the United States, and the global export price of pistachios, the Bounds Test and time series data from 1996 to 2022 were used. This test was conducted within the framework of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and the existence of cointegration between the variables was examined in different scenarios.
The research findings indicated that the(VECM) is suitable for examining the relationship between the three variables: export prices of pistachios from Iran, Turkey, and the United States, and for evaluating the response of export pistachio prices to shocks. The results showed that the price of Iranian pistachios has a very small effect on the price of American pistachios, but the price of American pistachios has a very significant effect on the price of Iranian pistachios. Additionally, the price of Turkish pistachios is more influenced by the price shocks of American pistachios than by the price of Iranian pistachios. The results indicate a decrease in the competitiveness of Iran in the global pistachio market.
Suggestion
the export of Iranian pistachios and improve the export position of this product, identifying new markets with high growth potential is very important. Additionally, paying attention to trade and health regulations of target markets, including controlling and reducing aflatoxin contamination as one of the most important limiting factors for Iranian pistachio exports, is essential.
Keywords

Subjects


Allam, M.I., and Quazi, R.M (2003). Determinant of Capital Flight An Econometric Case Study of Bangladesh. International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.17: PP 85-103.
 Anvyeh Tekyeh, L. (2007). the study of comparative advantage of Iran’s apple export in comparison to the other apple exporter countries, Journal of agricultural economics and development, Vol 15, No 58, pp. 177-203. (In Farsi)
Aminizadeh, M. Rafiei, H. Riahi, A. Mehrparvar, A. (2013). "Competitiveness model of the top global pistachio exporters in Iran's importing markets". Agricultural Economics. Volume 2, No. 8, pp. 41-68. (In Farsi)
Ahmed. O. (2021). Assessing the Current Situation of the World Wheat Market Leadership: Using the Semi-Parametric Approach. Mathematics9(2), 115. <https://doi.org/10.3390/math9020115>
Belloumi, M. (2014). The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model. Economic systems, 38(2), 269-287.
Engle RF, Granger CWJ. 1987. Cointegration and error correction representation: estimation and testing. Econometric 55: 251–276.
 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (fao.org). <https://www.fao.org>.
Hosseini, M. Fathi, T. (2012). Changes in the structure of the global date market and the target markets of Iranian dates. Business reviews. No 62, PP. 87-106. (In Farsi)
Ivanov, V. & Kilian, L. (2005). A practitioner's guide to lag order selection for VAR impulse response analysis. Studies in nonlinear dynamic and econometrics, 9 (1): 1-36.

Janzen. J. P & Adjemian M.K. 2017. Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery. American journal of agricultural economic. Vol 99: 1188- 1207.

Johansen S. 1991. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometric 59: 1551–1580.
Ghoshray. A. (2016). Market Delineation and Price Leadership in the World Wheat Market: A Cointegration Analysis. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 35(2). PP 312-326.
Karbasi, A., Heydari, A. (2014). "Factors Affecting Iran's Pistachio Exports." Agricultural Economics Research, No. 1, pp. 91-112. (In Farsi)
Karbasi, A., Amini Zadeh, M. (2017). "Examining Factors Affecting Iran's Pistachio Exports with Emphasis on the Role of Trade Sanctions." Agricultural Economics Research, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 1-22. (In Farsi)
Mahmoudi, A., Jalali, S. (2016). "Export Competitiveness of Iranian Pistachios in Global Markets." Economic Research, No. 4, pp. 951-976. (In Farsi)
Mohammadi, M., Yazdani, S. (2023). "Examining Market Integration and Global Price Leadership of Corn." Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, No. 122, pp. 247-266. (In Farsi)
Ministry of Jihad Agriculture. <https://www.maj.ir/>
Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S., (2005). Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework. Economic Modeling, Vol. 22: PP 423– 438.
Park JY. 1990. Testing for unit roots by variable addition. In Advances in Econometrics: Cointegration,
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. 2001. “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship.” Journal of Applied Economics 16: 289-326.
Pakravan, M., & Kavoosi Kalashami, M. (2011). Future prospects of Iran, U. S and Turkey's Pistachio exports. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 1(3): PP181-188. (In Farsi)
Pakravan, M. R., and Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H., and Gilanpour, O. (2010). Studying Iranian pistachio export position: Comparative advantage and trading map approach, Journal of agricultural economics and development, article in press. (In Farsi)
Philips. P.C. & Ploberger,w. (1994). Posterior odd testing for a unit root with date-based model selection. Economic theory, 10  '774-808.
Rafiei, H., Barikani, A. (2012). "Iran's Position in the Global Pistachio Market and Examining the Relationship Between Pistachio Production and This Position." Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 229-207. (In Farsi)
Stock J, Watson MW. 1988. Testing for common trends. Journal of the American Statistical Association 83: 1097–1107.
Shin Y. 1994. A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory 10: 91–115.
Salami, H., Pishbahar, A. (2001). "Changes in the Comparative Advantage Pattern of Iran’s Agricultural Products: An Applied Analysis Using Revealed Comparative Advantage Indices." Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, No. 34, pp. 67-99. (In Farsi)
Yang, J. Zhang, J. Leatham, D. (2003). Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures Markets. Analysis Of Economics  and  finance 4, 37–50.