Investigating the Substitution and Expansion Effects of the Cropping Pattern Change on the Crop Production in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Cropping pattern as one of the key factors in development of the agriculture sector has a prominent role, especially for those developing countries which faced with the increasing population, high demand and a relative improvement in living standards. Therefore, this study investigated the substitution and expansion effects of the cropping pattern change on the crop Production in Iranian agriculture during the period 1982-83 to 2008-09. Results indicated that despite the 50 percent dominance of wheat on the total cropped area, there was a tendency toward cultivation of crops such as corn, oilseeds and some high consumption crops like legumes and vegetables. These changes were affected by both substitution and expansion effects, so that the 58.7 percent of the change in the cropped area was due to the expansion effect and the rest of the 43.1 percent was due to the substitution effect. Calculating the Herfindal index as a measurement of the diversification level and its relation with the production and yields of the crops, it was indicated no relationship between the current diversification level and the available increase in production and yields of the crops which is not unacceptable due to the high area under wheat cultivation. Therefore, it was recommended to extend diversification through increasing yields of wheat and other crops.

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