N. Shahnoushi , B. Fakari and M. Kojouri Corn as the third strategic agricultural product، after wheat and rice، is one of the most important crops. In addition، to poultry feed، it is used to produce edible oil، starch، glucose، and raw material in industrial production of ethanol and some other products. Slight increase and low volatility in prices of goods and services will result in stability and sustainable economic growth، promote social and economic development. In this study، the cycles and fluctuations in corn price are analyzed applying Harmonic pattern and GARCH model respectively to daily prices of corn from Iran Agricultural Mercantile Exchange، since 14.10.2007 till 11.10.2011. Harmonic analysis results indicate long-term cycles in a period of 21 months in analyzing period. GARCH model results showed that corn price fluctuations cause more fluctuations in corn future prices، in addition the error terms that has less contribution in conditional variance. However، the guaranteed price spend a lot for government، it was not able to control price fluctuation. Therefore، policymakers should provide a proper condition to encourage sellers and buyers to deal in Agricultural Mercantile Exchange and use future and option contract.
Shahnoushi, N., Fakari, B., & Kojouri, M. (2012). Analysing Corn Price Fluctuations and Cycles Using GARCH Model and Harmonic Pattern. Agricultural Economics, 6(2), 63-81.
MLA
Naser Shahnoushi; Behzad Fakari; Mostafa Kojouri. "Analysing Corn Price Fluctuations and Cycles Using GARCH Model and Harmonic Pattern". Agricultural Economics, 6, 2, 2012, 63-81.
HARVARD
Shahnoushi, N., Fakari, B., Kojouri, M. (2012). 'Analysing Corn Price Fluctuations and Cycles Using GARCH Model and Harmonic Pattern', Agricultural Economics, 6(2), pp. 63-81.
VANCOUVER
Shahnoushi, N., Fakari, B., Kojouri, M. Analysing Corn Price Fluctuations and Cycles Using GARCH Model and Harmonic Pattern. Agricultural Economics, 2012; 6(2): 63-81.
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