An Investigation of the Effective Factors on Trade Flows between Iran and EU (the case study: Agricultural Sector)

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

In this research, determinant and effective factors on agricultural trade flows between Iran and EU were studied with emphasis on trade cooperation agreement. For this purpose, export and import static and dynamic gravity models of agricultural products of Iran and EU were estimated applying fixed and random effects models to panel data. Based on the findings of export static gravity model for Iran agricultural products to EU with fixed effects, GDP variables of exporter and importer countries, geographical distance, real exchange rate and mean of tariff rate to Iranian agricultural export met our expectations. Mean of tariff coefficient was found to be 1.78 and showed that agricultural exports can be increased to 17.8% with10% reduction of tariff based on the trade and cooperation agreement. Besides, the results of individual effects estimation in export gravity model clarified that without considering the other factors, largest rate of Iran agricultural export would be to Germany, UK, Italy, France and Spain. Moreover, the results of import gravity model conspicuously showed that GDP, EU countries GDP, geographical distance, and real exchange rate have significant effects on imports of agricultural products from EU. Individual coefficient effects showed that the maximum agricultural product imports happen to Germany, France, UK and Spain.

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