Determining Sustainable Cultivation Pattern in Phariman-Torbat-e- Jaam Plain

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

In this study, farmers' priorities and decision making about cultivation pattern were recognized applying AHP model.In order to investigate optimum crop pattern, seasonal and annual precipitation in forthcoming ten years were forecasted using “Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average” (SARIMA) model and annual entrance volume to groundwater resources was calculated at the first step. Then, regional crop pattern is suggested through utilizing various mathematical multi-loop programming patterns such as Non-Linear Programming (NLP), Non-Linear Weighted Goal Programming (NLWGP), Non-Linear Weighted Fuzzy Goal Programming (NLWFGP) and Non-Linear Fuzzy Goal Programming (NLFGP). These patterns would able us to set lots of mutual or opposite goals and maximizing any goal availabilities by ranking. By executing suggested cultivation patterns through ten-years planning period, we would be able to achieve maximum gross margin, and to minimize current investment costs and chemical fertilizer consumption and unchanged labor employment with least change in present regional cultivation pattern. In these patterns, ground water negative balance would change from 216 million cubic meters in base year to zero in last year of programming period and would save 1.2 billion cubic meters water through programming period.

Keywords