Determining the Same Risk Areas for Potato Yield Frost Risk in Iran: The Application of Spatial Econometrics

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

The nature of climate risks such as drought and frost is such that at the time of their occurrence, large areas are affected. Understanding the spatial extent of the impact of such risks is very important to prevent and cope with their devastating consequences. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the spatial dependence between potato production areas in the country and Identify areas with similar risk of frost. To this end, spatial autoregressive models were used. Results indicated that between the cultivated variety of spring, summer, fall and winter potatoes in the country, just about fall potato planting areas (with a share of 72 percent of the potato acreage) yield risk is systematic. In fall planting region, the intensity of the spatial correlation between areas with similar risk assigned to neighboring varies from 0.37 to 0.72 is fluctuating. The precipitation changes over the years have played an important role in establishing this correlation. Based on the results obtained and climate divisions and neighborhoods identified in this study, it is possible to determine the optimal portfolio of insurance for the potato crop that guarantee to reduce financial risk of insurance fund and yield risk of potato.
 

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Agricultural Economics
Volume 8, Special Issue
November 2014
Pages 55-67

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