پیش‌بینی تولید، صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی ایران: ترکیب روش‌های اقتصادسنجی و پویایی‌های سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تبریز

2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 دانشگاه تبریز- دانشکده کشاورزی- گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

10.22034/iaes.2021.526889.1829

چکیده

امروزه پیش‌بینی رخدادهای آینده نقش مهمی را در فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری ایفا می‌کند و برای برنامه‌ریزان، سیاست‌گذاران و واحدهای اقتصادی دارای اهمیت ویژه‌ای است. ازاین‌رو، هدف این پژوهش، طراحی مدلی پویا برای پیش‌بینی وضعیت آتی تولید، صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی ایران می‌باشد که در آغاز با استفاده از روش‌های اقتصادسنجی به‌صورت تک‌معادله‌ای و معادلات ‌همزمان؛ تابع‌های تولید، عرضه، تقاضا، صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی طی دوره 96-1357 مورد برآورد قرار گرفت؛ سپس توابع یاد شده در الگوی پویایی‌های ‌سیستم جایگذاری شد تا بتوان وضعیت بخش کشاورزی ایران را طی دوره 1416- 1396، شبیه‌سازی کرد. پیش‌بینی‌های به‌دست‌آمده از شبیه‌سازی این الگو نشان داد که طی 20 سال آینده، ارزش صادرات، واردات و عرضه کل بخش کشاورزی ایران افزایش یافته و به ترتیب سالانه  46/8، 7/0 و 21/2 درصد رشد خواهند یافت. جمعیت کشور نیز از مرز صد میلیون نفر عبور خواهد کرد و روند تولید و تقاضای بخش کشاورزی نیز متناسب با روند تغییر پذیری‌های جمعیتی تغییر خواهند کرد؛ به‌گونه‌ای که میانگین نرخ رشد سالانه ارزش تولید و تقاضای بخش کشاورزی به ترتیب 27/1 و 18/2 درصد برآورد شده است. اما به دلیل نرخ رشد جمعیتی پایین در دوره کنونی، پیش‌بینی می‌شود که طی سال‌های آتی به‌تدریج نیروی انسانی در این بخش کاهش خواهد یافت که این مسئله تأثیر مستقیمی بر میزان تولیدهای بخش کشاورزی خواهد داشت. لذا بر پایه نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، برای ارتقاء تولیدهای بخش کشاورزی و جبران کمبود نیروی کار در سال‌های آتی، افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در راستای بهبود فناوری‌های کارآمد در این بخش می‌تواند به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین راهکار برای دستیابی به خودکفایی، امنیت غذایی و تأمین منبع‌های ارزی مورد نیاز کشور به‌شمار ‌آید

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