بررسی آثار شوک قیمت و تولید فرآورده‌های دامی بر امنیت غذایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

10.22034/iaes.2022.548064.1910

چکیده

طی سالیان اخیر نوسانات بازار فرآورده­های دامی موجب نارضایتی تمامی گروه­های جامعه شده است. هدف این مطالعه بررسی امنیت غذایی گروه­های مختلف درآمدی شهری و روستایی در اثر شوک­های تولیدی، قیمتی و درآمدی فرآورده­های دامی در قالب مدل چند بازاری جابجایی تعادل است. اطلاعات مورد نیاز از داده­های خام هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری و روستایی طی سال­های 1387 تا 1397 مرکز آمار ایران استخراج گردید. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که امنیت غذایی جامعه بیشتر تحت تأثیر شوک قیمتی فرآورده­های دامی است. در بین گروه­های مختلف درآمدی شهری و روستایی، خانوارهای فقیر روستایی بیشترین آسیب را از افزایش قیمت فرآورده­های دامی متحمل خواهند شد. به طوریکه با افزایش 30 درصدی قیمت فرآورده­های دامی، میانگین کالری دریافتی خانوارهای فقیر روستایی حدود 51 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت که این یافته بیانگر آن است که فراورده­های دامی برای خانوارهای فقیر کالاهای ضروری محسوب نمی­شوند. در نهایت، نتایج نشان داد که اثرات منفی افزایش قیمت فرآورده­های دامی بر امنیت غذایی از طریق افزایش 17 درصدی درآمد خانوارها به فرض ثبات قیمت سایر مواد غذایی تاحدی تعدیل خواهد شد، اما وضعیت نگران کننده امنیت غذایی خانوارهای فقیر روستایی به قوت خود باقی خواهد ماند. بنابراین، برای تأمین کالری مورد نیاز آسیب­پذیرترین اقشار جامعه نسبت به شوک­های تولیدی و قیمتی، افزایش یکسان درآمد اسمی این گروه خانوارها مطابق با سایر اقشار جامعه کافی نیست و لازم است که سناریوهای متفاوتی شامل اعطای سبدهای غذایی حمایتی و افزایش بیشتر درآمد اسمی نسبت به سایر گروه­های خانوار، در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Abdelhedi, I. T. and Zouari, S. Z. (2020). Agriculture and food security in North Africa: A theoretical and empirical approach. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 11(1): p. 193-210.
Aghapour Sabbaghi, M. and Kupahi, D. M. (2005). Estimation of Systemic Demand Function of Milk and Dairy Products for Urban Households (2000-2001), in 5th Iranian Agricultural Economics Conference. (In Farsi)
Bakhshoodeh, M. (2010) Impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural Iran, Food Policy, 35: 12–19. (In Farsi)
Banks, J., Blundell, R. and Lewbel, A. (1997) Quadratic Engel curves and consumer demand; Review of Economics and Statistics, 79: 527-539.
Bank, W. (2014). World development report 2013: Risk and opportunity-managing risk for development: The World Bank.
Barrett, C. B. (2010). Measuring food insecurity. Science, 2010. 327(5967): p. 825-828.
Ben Abdallah, M., Fekete-Farkas, M. and Lakner, Z. (2021). Exploring the Link between Food Security and Food Price Dynamics: A Bibliometric Analysis. Agriculture. 11(3): p. 263.
Brinkman, M., Levin-Koopman, J., Wicke, B., Shutes, L., Kuiper, M., Faaij, A. and van der Hilst, F. (2020). The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study. Biomass and Bioenergy. 141: p. 105695.
Diaz-Caneja, M. B., conte, C. G., Dittmann, CH., Gallego Pinilla, F. J. and Stroblmair, J. (2008). Agricultural insurance schemes: Office for Official Publications of the European Union.
Fidan, H. and Klasra, M.A. (2006). Seasonality in household demand for meat and fish: Evidence from an urban area. Turkish Journal of Veterinary and Animal Sciences. 29(6): p. 1217-1224.
Fathi, F. Bakhshoodeh, M. and Zibaei, M. (2016). Energy Carrier Prices and Energy Efficiency- A Case Study of the Iranian Meat Market, Iran Energy Efficiency Organization Publications (Saba), 2016, 978-964-6553-11-8, Tehran. (In Farsi)
Fathi, F. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2021), Economic and environmental strategies against targeting energy subsidy in Iranian meat market A game theory approach ,Energy Policy, vol. 0, pp. 112153-0.
Fathi, F. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2016). Food Security Changes, Due to the Policy of Eliminating Energy Subsidies on the Iranian Meat Market, Economics and Agricultural Development, No. 0, 2016: p. 1-9. (In Farsi)         
Fathi, F. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2015). the effects of rising energy prices on the Iranian meat market. Agricultural Economics and Development. 23(91). (In Farsi)
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (1992)
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2008)
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2018(
Ghahremanzadeh, M. (2016). Measuring Impact of Rising Food Price on Iranian Urban Households Welfare. Agricultural Economics. 9(4): p. 97-119. (In Farsi)
Goodarzi, M. Mortazavi, S. and Peykani, Gh. (2007). Investigating the demand of the main groups of consumer and food goods in urban areas of Iran using a two-stage budgeting model. Agricultural Economics and Development. 15(57(for agricultural markets)). (In Farsi)
Greene, W.H. (2000) Econometrica Analysis. Fourth Edition. London: Prentice Hall International.
Haggblade, S., Me-Nsope, N. and Staatz, J. (2017). Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa. Food Policy. 71: p. 27-38.
Hein, D., Wessells, C.R. (1990) Demand systems estimation with microdata: A censored regression approach. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8: 365-371.
Ilboudo Nébié, E. K., Ba, D. and Giannini, A. (2021). Food security and climate shocks in Senegal: Who and where are the most vulnerable households?
Jones, J.P.H. (2010). Effects of a traceability system on the economic impacts of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
Khorami Moghadam, S. (2010) The effect of food subsidy policies on food demand and income distribution of rural and rural households in Iran, M.Sc. Thesis, University of Kerman.
Khosravi Nejad, A.A., Khodadad kasha, F. and Speech, Z. (2013). Assessing the increase in food prices on the welfare of urban households in Iran. Economic Strategy. 2(4). 20. (In Farsi)
Khosravinejad, A., Khodadad, K.F. and Sohbati, Z. (2013). An Evaluation Of Rise In Food Price On Welfare Of Urban Households In Iran. (In Farsi)
Kuyvenhoven, A. (2012). International Food Policy Research Institute (2012): 2011 Global Food Policy Report. Springer.
Lafrance, J. T., Beatty, T. K. M., Pope, R. D. and Agnow, G. K. (2002) Information theoretic measures of the income distribution in food demand; Journal of Econometrics, 107: 235-257.
Lawlor, K., Handa, S., Seidenfeld, D. and Zambia Cash Transfer Evaluation Team. (2019). Cash transfers enable households to cope with agricultural production and price shocks: evidence from Zambia. The journal of development studies. 55(2): p. 209-226.
Layani, G. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2016). A study of changes in poverty and vulnerability of rural households to rising global food prices in Iran. Economic research (sustainable growth and development); 16 (3): 27-1
Layani, G. and Esmaeili, A. (2016). Welfare Impacts of Tariff Reduction of Imported Wood in Iran: Application of Quadratic Relatively Ideal Demand System. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research. 47(2): p. 271-284. (In Farsi)
Leroy, J., Ruel, M., Frongillo, E., Harris, J. and Ballard, T. (2015). Measuring the food access dimension of food security: a critical review and mapping of indicators. Food and nutrition bulletin. 36(2): p. 167-195.
Luo, P. and Tanaka, T. (2021). Food import dependency and national food security: A price transmission analysis for the wheat sector. Foods. 10(8): p. 1715.
Majale salamat. (2015). (In Farsi)
Mehrzad, A. and Hooman, KH. (2002). Recognizing and improving agricultural water productivity in order to ensure water and food security in the country, in the 11th seminar of the National Irrigation and Drainage Committee.
Mirzaei, A. and Azram, H. (2020). The effects of rising chicken prices and nominal income on food security in Iran, in 27th National Congress of Food Science and Technology. (In Farsi)
Quester, A and Greene, W. (1982). Divorce risk and wifes labor supply behavioral. Social Science Quarterly, 12: 16-27.
Rezaeipour. M. Zolfaghari. M., Yousefi Dindarloo.M. and Najarzadeh.A. (2013). Comparing the performance of linear and nonlinear models in explaining an almost ideal demand system. Economic Modeling Quarterly. 22: 99-83. (In Farsi)
Mojaver Hoseni, F. (2007). Estimating income and price elasticities for food products and non-food groups using aids demand system. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 57: p. 199-224. (In Farsi)
Najafi, B.A.D. and Shoushtarian, A. (2004). Targeting Subsidles And Deleting Food Insecurity: The Case Study In Arsenjan. Iranlan Journal Of Trade Studies (IJTS). 8(31). (In Farsi)
National Statistics Portal. (2018)
Nicholson, Ch. F., Stephens, E.C., Kopainsky, B., Thornton, P.K., Jones, A.D., Parsons, D. and Garrett, J. (2021). Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs. Agricultural Systems. 188: p. 103030.
Pakdaman, M. (2009) A Study of the Effect of Food Subsidy Reform on Food Security in Iran, M.Sc. Thesis, Shiraz University. (In Farsi)
Salehi, F., Abdollahi, Z. and Abdollahi M. (2013). Optimal food basket For the Iranian society: Permanent Thought Publications. (In Farsi)
Sarvari, A., Sadr al Ashrafi, S., Daneshvar Kakhki, M. and Hatef, H. (2007). Determining the effects of milk price change on the welfare of producers and consumers and predicting it. Agricultural Economics (Economics and Agriculture). 1(2), pp.0-0. (In Farsi)
Shonkwiler, J.S. and Yen, S. (1999) Two-step estimation of a censored system of equations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81:972-982.
Thome, K., Meade, B., Rosen, S. and Beghin, J. (2017). Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia, in World Agricultural Resources and Food Security. Emerald Publishing Limited.
Tobin, J. (1958). Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables. Econometrica: 26, 24-36.
Van Campenhout, B., Pauw, K. and Minot, N. (2018). The impact of food price shocks in Uganda: first-order effects versus general-equilibrium consequences. European Review of Agricultural Economics. 45(5): p. 783-807.
Weber, R. (2015). Welfare impacts of rising food prices: evidence from India.