شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی راهبرد‌های مدیریت جنگل‌های شمال در شرایط عدم حتمیت: کاربرد روش برنامه‌ریزی پویا

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

2 استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

10.22034/iaes.2019.94273.1633

چکیده

بهره ­برداری، حفاظت و حمایت از منابع جنگل نیازمند برنامه­ریزی اصولی و صحیح است. برای این منظور به اطلاعات از وضعیت کمی و کیفی جنگل نیاز است. در این پژوهش با برآورد مدل رویش جنگل، مدل خودتوضیحی میانگین متحرک برای پیش­بینی قیمت چوب، مدل هزینه برداشت چوب و تدوین یک مدل برنامه­ریزی پویا، راهبرد­های مدیریتی در قالب سه سناریوی بیشینه کردن ارزش حال خالص، بیشینه کردن میزان برداشت چوب و بیشینه کردن میزان موجودی، برای جنگل­های شمال ایران شبیه­سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که ارزش حال خالص در این سه سناریو به ترتیب 27642، 25984 و 23081 هزار ریال و میزان حجم چوب به ترتیب 11182، 10500 و 11807 مترمکعب طی دوره مورد بررسی است. همچنین با استفاده از مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، بر مبنای معیارهای زیست محیطی و اقتصادی راهبرد بیشینه کردن ارزش حال خالص، به عنوان بهترین گزینه مدیریت جنگل شناخته شد. 

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