پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم بر بازار محصولات کشاورزی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

10.22034/iaes.2020.113413.1719

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم  تغییری برگشت‌ناپذیر در متوسط شرایط آب و هوایی است. این پدیده دامنه زمانی و مکانی گسترده‌ای دارد و به دنبال آن دامنۀ اثرگذاری گسترده بر بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی از جمله منابع آب و کشاورزی می‌باشد. در این میان، حساس بودن شرایط زیستی در منطقه‌های خشک سبب می‌شود پیامدهای تغییرات اقلیمی در این نقطه‌ها، ملموس‌تر و شدیدتر خود را نشان دهد و به علت این حساسیت بررسی اثرگذاری‌های تغییر اقلیم در این منطقه‌ها ضرورت دوچندانی می‌یابد. در این راستا هدف مطالعه‌ی حاضر بررسی پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم در منطقه‌های خشک و بر بازار محصول‌های کشاورزی کشور است. برای این منظور ضمن استفاده از الگو چندبازاره کشاورزی،اقدام به پهنه‌بندی اقلیم و زیراقلیم‌‌های ایران به روش دومارتن اصلاح شده، گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که تا سال‌ 2025 تغییرپذیری‌های آب و هوایی، باعث تغییرپذیری‌های متفاوتی مانند تغییر  در عملکرد، سطح زیرکشت و آب  درسترس در محصول‌های منتخب (گندم آبی و دیم، جوآبی و دیم، و ذرت دانه‌ای)، می‌گردد که این امر باعث تغییر در قیمت و افزایش این محصول‌های شده است. همچنین تغییرپذیری‌های صورت گرفته در محصول‌های باعث تغییر در درآمد بهره‌برداران کشاورزی شده و میزان صادرات و واردات این محصول‌ها را متاثر کرده است. در این راستا پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست حمایتی قیمتی و غیرقیمتی مناسب برای حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان این محصولات اتخاذ شود تا پیامدهای تغییرات اقلیمی بر بخش کشاورزی قابل مدیریت (کنترل) برنامه‌ریزی شود.
 

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