نقش تخریب محیط زیست و مصرف انرژی در رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی: شواهد تجربی از ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی،علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی،گرگان،ایران

2 دانشیارگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی،گرگان،ایران

چکیده

اگرچه رشد اقتصادی ایران چندان متکی به تولیدهای کشاورزی نیست، اما کشاورزی ازجمله برجسته‌ترین محرک‌های اقتصاد ایران است. بدون رفع بازدارنده­های توسعه در این بخش نمی­توان انتظار داشت که دیگر بخش­های اقتصادی کشور به توسعه دست یابند. از آنجایی که توسعه بخش کشاورزی به طور پرهیز­ناپذیری منجر به مصرف انبوه انرژی می­شود، این چژوهش با هدف بررسی اثرگذاری­های مصرف فرآورده­های نفتی، مصرف برق، مصرف گاز، انتشار CO2 و صادرات محصول­های کشاورزی بر رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در ایران انجام شده است. در این راستا، از داده‌های دوره زمانی سال‌های 1980 تا 2018 برای تحلیل رابطه­های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین متغیرهای مورد بررسی با استفاده از مدل‌سازی خود توضیح با وقفه­های توزیعی (ARDL) و آزمون‌های مرتبط با آن استفاده شد. نتایج مدل ARDL نشان می‌دهد که مصرف فرآورده های نفتی و گاز طبیعی در بلندمدت بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی تأثیر مثبت دارند، در حالی که انتشار CO2 در کوتاه‌مدت تأثیر منفی دارد. افزون بر این، صادرات بخش کشاورزی و مصرف برق به طور قابل توجهی بر متغیر وابسته تأثیر نمی‌گذارند. همچنین صادرات کشاورزی، مصرف فرآورده­های نفتی و گاز طبیعی ارزش افزوده کشاورزی را به ترتیب 115/0، 499/0 و 278/0 درصد در دراز مدت افزایش می­دهند، در حالی که انتشار CO2 و مصرف برق به طور معنی­داری بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی تأثیر نمی­گذارند.بنا­بر یافته­های این پژوهش اجرای سیاست­هایی مانند متناسب­سازی تولیدهای کشاورزی بر مبنای استانداردهای جهانی، ایجاد ساختارهای اداری کارآمد و مناسب برای امور صادراتی و سرمایه گذاری درآمدهای صادراتی در بخش کشاورزی بایستی مورد توجه سیاست­گذاران قرار گیرد.

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