ادغام دو روش بازی هسته و ورشکستگی غیرقطعی به‌منظور تخصیص بهینه‌ی آب حوضه‌ی گرگانرود- قره‌سو

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی. دانشکده مهندسی زراعی. دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی

2 دانشیار اقتصاد منابع طبیعی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

10.22034/iaes.2020.118653.1745

چکیده

در دهه‌‌ی گذشته آب تبدیل به کالایی راهبردی شده به‌طوری‌که این کالا نه‌تنها دارای اهمیت اقتصادی و اجتماعی است، بلکه اهمیت امنیتی یافته و پیش‌بینی می‌شود که طی سال‌های آتی عامل اصلی برخی درگیری‌ها بین ذینفعان شود. این امر ضرورت مدیریت منابع آبی را آشکار می‌سازد. در این میان، مدیریت آب حوضه‌های مشترک به‌دلیل وجود ذینفعان مختلف پیچیده‌تر از حوضه‌های غیر‌مشترک است. این بررسی بر مبنای اطلاعات سال ۱۳۹۴ به تخصیص آب حوضه‌ی مشترک گرگانرود-قره‌سو بین استان‌های گلستان، سمنان و خراسان شمالی و تعیین سهم هر یک از بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و محیط زیست می‌پردازد. بدین منظور برای نخستین بار از ادغام دو روش هسته و ورشکستگی غیرقطعی که زیرمجموعه‌ای از نظریه بازی همکارانه هستند استفاده می‌گردد. مدل‌های همکارانه از همان آغاز بر پایه‌ی همکاری و تشکیل ائتلاف بین ذینفعان شکل می‌گیرد. نتایج روش هسته نشان می‌دهد حضور همه‌ی ذینفعان در یک ائتلاف منجر به کسب بیشترین منفعت خالص به میزان 24،211،790 میلیارد ریال می‌شود. سپس به کمک ارزش شاپلی مشخص شد که بخش کشاورزی استان گلستان با 49 درصد دارای بیشترین سهم از منفعت ایجاد شده و بالاترین قدرت در بازی است. روش گاتلی نیز پایداری ائتلاف اصلی را پس از جلب رضایت این بازیکن تأیید می‌کند. سپس روش ورشکستگی غیرقطعی با مقایسه قوانین مختلف ورشکستگی در 5 سناریو به‌کار برده شد. برآیند دو روش اکثریت آرا و شاخص پایداری گویای آن است که قانون ورشکستگی نسبی تعدیل‌شده می‌تواند گزینه‌ی عادلانه‌ای برای تعیین سهم ذینفعان باشد. در صورت ادغام نتایج روش هسته و ورشکستگی با اعمال سناریوی نخست سهم تأمین شده‌ی نیاز بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و محیط زیست گلستان 13/98، 46 و 5/48 درصد، سهم بخش‌های کشاورزی و محیط زیست سمنان 78/47 و 64/43 درصد و سهم بخش‌های کشاورزی و محیط زیست خراسان شمالی 03/51 و 64/43 درصد خواهد بود و منفعتی برابر با 13،532،830میلیارد ریال ایجاد خواهد شد.

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