Agricultural Economics

Agricultural Economics

ارزیابی تاثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
2 بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده
موقعیت اقلیمی خشک و نیمه خشک ایران موجب شده است تا بخش کشاورزی از تغییرات اقلیمی بشدت متأثر ­شود. در دهه­های اخیر، ایران شدیدترین و درازمدت­ترین خشک­سالی را تجربه کرده است. این پژوهش، رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه­مدت بین ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی و متغیرهای اقلیمی (دما و بارش) به همراه دیگر متغیرهای اثرگذار را با استفاده از داده‌های دوره زمانی 2021-1964 در ایران ارزیابی می‌کند. در این مطالعه تحلیل هم­جمعی موسوم به روش خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شد. یافته­ها نشان داد در کوتاه­مدت عمده نوسان­های تولید بخش کشاورزی توسط متغیرهای آب و هوایی قابل تبیین است. همچنین نتایج رابطه بلندمدت نشان داد یک درجه افزایش دما بیش از 5 درصد کاهش ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی را به­دنبال خواهد داشت. اما متغیر بارش اثر ملموسی بر تولید یا ارزش­افزوده بخش کشاورزی نشان نداد. از میان انواع متغیرهای سرمایه­ای نیز زمین اهمیت ارزیابی داشت. همچنین مشخص شد نیروی کار در افزایش تولید بخش کشاورزی نقش مهمی دارد. با توجه به اینکه کاهش بهره­وری نیروی­کار در کنار افزایش استهلاک سرمایه مهم­ترین عامل اثرگذاری گرمایش زمین بر تولید عنوان می­شود، بنابراین راهکار با اهمیت برای رویارویی با این شرایط افزایش بهره­وری عامل­های تولید است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


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