تأثیر موافقت‏نامه موقت ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در توسعه تجارت بین این کشورها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار و عضو هیئت‌علمی موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی

2 کارشناس ارشد معاونت برنامه‌ریزی و اقتصادی وزارت جهاد کشاورزی

3 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، معاونت توسعه بازرگانی وزارت جهاد کشاورزی

چکیده

گسترش پدیده جهانی‌شدن اقتصاد سبب شد تا رابطه‏ها و همکاری کشورها در جهت تحصیل سودمند‏ی‏ها در قالب همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای در دستور کار بسیاری از کشورهای درحال‌توسعه به‌ویژه کشور ایران قرار گیرد. تعامل با چنین کشورهایی، ایران را در ایجاد زمینه‌های لازم برای تجارت با تعرفه ترجیحی و همگرایی اقتصادی ترغیب کرده است. در این پژوهش تلاش شده با بررسی تجارت (صادرات و واردات) ایران و پنج کشور عضو اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا با یکدیگر، در مقایسه با دیگر کشورها و با استفاده از یک مدل کاربردی با عنوان مدل اسمارت، پیامدهای ایجاد تجارت و انحراف تجارت ناشی از موافقت‌نامه موقت ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا و کشورهای عضو با استفاده از اطلاعات دوره زمانی 1395 الی 1399 بررسی و تحلیل شود. نتایج بدست آمده از پژوهش در زمینه این موافقت‌نامه نشان می‌دهد، به‌طور نسبی تجارت بین ایران و پنج کشور اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا طی یک سال پس از اجرای آن، در مقایسه با میانگین سه سال گذشته بهبودیافته است. نتایج بدست آمده از مدل اسمارت بیانگر افزایش 4/4 درصدی واردات بخش کشاورزی از اتحادیه یاد شده ناشی از کاهش تعرفه خواهد بود که بخشی از آن ناشی از ایجاد تجارت و بخش دیگر ناشی از انحراف تجارت است. لذا با عنایت به آموز‏ه‏های خوب این موافقت‌نامه پیشنهاد می‌شود در زمینه آگاهی‌رسانی کافی از ظرفیت‌های این موافقت‌نامه به‌تهمه‏ی نهادها وبازرگانان کشور پیش از پیش توجه شده و انگیزه بیشترو تسهیلات لازم برای آنان فراهم شود.

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