Economic resilience has become a critical concern for policymakers and economists, particularly as economies worldwide face various shocks. Studies have been conducted at national, regional, and sectoral levels to measure resilience and analyze how different variables influence it. This research aims to examine the impact of infrastructural factors (transportation and water), institutional factors (business environment and government expenditure), and structural factors (human capital and industrial concentration) on the economic resilience of the agricultural sector across 28 Iranian provinces during two periods: 2001–2012 and 2013–2021.
To account for spatial heterogeneity in agricultural resilience, a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was employed. The findings reveal that infrastructural factors, including transportation and water resources, had a significant positive effect on agricultural resilience across all 28 provinces in both periods. Among institutional factors, the business environment positively influenced resilience in 14 and 16 provinces during the first and second periods, respectively. Meanwhile, government expenditure had a significant positive impact in 17 provinces during the first period but only in 12 provinces during the second period. Structural factors played a varied role: human capital positively affected resilience in 9 provinces during the first period and 13 provinces during the second period, while industrial concentration had a significant positive impact in only 11 provinces during the second period.
Based on these results, it is recommended to prioritize investment in infrastructure modernization, improve the business environment through deregulation, target government spending toward productive and infrastructure projects in the agricultural sector, and enhance human capital through specialized training programs.